Carnival Corporation reported its Q3 results on September 29 and the market's reaction was unambiguous: the stock jumped 13.4% in a single session, closing at $25.11, its best one-day move in months, and erasing much of the 15% decline that had accumulated ahead of the print.
The earnings reaction has changed the short story materially since the preview note published three days ago. Short interest, which had been climbing steadily through September, edged back 1.7% on the day to 4.2% of free float, representing around 49.3 million shares. That is still 29% above where it was a month ago, so the bears have not abandoned the trade. But the fact that shorts are trimming rather than pressing into a 13% gap-up suggests the more aggressive element of the accumulation may be unwinding. The borrow market reinforces this read: cost to borrow has fallen 38% over the week to a very low 0.29%, and availability remains exceptionally loose at 3,269%, meaning there are roughly 33 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. There is no squeeze pressure here. The stock's ORTEX short score drifted down to 35.5 from 36.7 earlier in the week, in line with a modest easing of short-side conviction.
Options traders were already rotating away from defensive positioning before the print, and the move confirmed the shift. The put/call ratio closed at 1.13, well below its 20-day mean of 1.22 and near the lower end of its recent range. One standard deviation below the mean is not dramatic, but it is a clear directional move: after sitting near 1.42 at the end of August, the ratio has compressed steadily as the stock found a floor. That compression coincided almost exactly with the stock's bottoming process, and the relationship between the two series over this period is worth watching as the next catalyst approaches.
The Street's response on September 30 was a split verdict. Morgan Stanley's Jamie Rollo raised his target to $32.50 from $31 while holding Overweight, and Susquehanna lifted to $29. Those moves are modest and still leave both targets close to or below where the stock was trading by the time the notes hit. On the other side, Mizuho trimmed to $38 from $39 and BNP Paribas cut to $31 from $33, both maintaining positive ratings. The pattern, ratings held firm, targets adjusted incrementally, is consistent with what the previous note described: broad-based conviction on the long-term thesis but careful calibration on near-term assumptions. The consensus mean price target now stands at $33.89, roughly 35% above the current close. That gap is narrower than the 53% premium that existed at $22.25 before the print, which matters: some of the undervaluation argument has been used up in one session. The EV/EBITDA multiple has expanded to 8.1x, up about 0.6x on the week, and the PE ratio has moved to 10.1x. The company's EPS surprise factor score at the 80th percentile reflects a track record of beating estimates, which the bulls will lean on when framing the next print in December.
Retail attention has jumped alongside the price move. Wikipedia views for Carnival are running at a z-score of 1.78 against the stock's own 90-day history, the highest attention reading in the recent dataset window. That is an attention indicator rather than a financial signal, but it is worth noting that spikes of this kind often accompany post-earnings coverage cycles that can sustain volume for several sessions.
On the activist register, Richard L. Kohan's Schedule 13D/A filing from November 2025 remains on record, disclosing an 8.06% stake. That filing predates the current price level by some distance, and as with all 13D/G disclosures, the position is as-last-disclosed: a holder can reduce below 5% without a further filing. The institutional base is broadly stable, with BlackRock and Vanguard together holding above 13% of shares, and Causeway Capital adding over 1.28 million shares in the most recent reported period.
The cruise sector moved broadly higher on the week. RCL gained nearly 11%, NCLH added 4.1%, and LIND led the group with a 14.5% advance. That sector-wide bid suggests macro factors, rather than anything Carnival-specific, were also at work, which makes parsing how much of the CCL move is company signal versus sector beta an important question heading into the next quarterly update on December 18.
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