EXPE has shed another leg lower since the last note, now down 19% over the past month to $266.33, and the positioning picture has shifted: short sellers rebuilt aggressively this week even as the stock ticked up 0.8% on Tuesday.
The short interest story has changed materially since the September 23 note, which described SI at roughly 4.3% of free float and drifting. Bears have added meaningful size. Short interest jumped 19% over the past week to 5.27% of the free float, a level last seen in late August when the position briefly touched the equivalent of around 6% before unwinding. That reversal has now been fully retraced. The rebuilding happened in a single sharp step around September 23 to 24, when shares short jumped from roughly 5 million to over 6.3 million, and the position has held near those levels since. The borrow market offers no friction to support further adding: availability remains around 1,040%, meaning shorts face essentially no cost or constraint in building the position, with the cost to borrow a negligible 0.42%.
Options positioning has held its defensive tilt but softened slightly from last week's near-record reading. The put/call ratio is at 1.38, just above its 20-day average of 1.33 and still within range of its 52-week high of 1.39. The z-score of 1.07 is a step back from the more stretched readings seen earlier in the week. Put demand is still elevated relative to recent history, but the frantic hedging pace from late September has not accelerated further.
The Street has turned notably cooler this week. Truist Securities cut its price target from $309 to $288 today while maintaining a Hold, a rare near-term downgrade relative to the post-earnings target lifts most firms made in August. That action is significant because it pulls against the post-Q2 consensus, when targets from BTIG ($400), Evercore ISI ($430), and Wedbush ($417) clustered well above current levels. The mean target of $339 now implies roughly 27% upside from here, but the gap between the bullish end of the range and the current price tells a story of a stock that has de-rated faster than analysts have revised. The consensus remains Hold with 21 Hold ratings and just one Sell, pointing to a Street that is broadly neutral rather than convicted either way. Valuation has compressed with the price: the PE is around 11.3 and EV/EBITDA near 9.6, though the EV/EBITDA reading has risen around 2 points over the past week as the enterprise value adjusts. The EPS surprise factor score of 86 shows the company has consistently beaten estimates, which the bear case attributes to a low bar rather than genuine acceleration. The bear thesis points to modest 7% average year-on-year B2C growth, AI disintermediation risk, and concentrated US consumer exposure; bulls counter with B2B segment optionality and improving marketing efficiency under CEO Ariane Gorin.
The ownership picture adds one wrinkle worth noting. The activist register shows The Vanguard Group filed a Schedule 13G/A in March 2026 disclosing a 0% stake, down from a previously reported 12.85%. That is a substantial reduction by Expedia's largest passive holder, though the filing mechanics mean the exit may have been gradual and the current institutional data shows Vanguard Portfolio Management still holding 4.84% of shares as of June 30 via a separate vehicle. AQR Capital added over 554,000 shares as of June 30, one of the more active recent institutional moves among the top holders. As always, 13D/G stakes are event-driven disclosures around the 5% threshold and positions may have changed since last filing.
The next scheduled print is November 5. With short interest back near its August peak, the PCR holding defensive and the Street cutting targets rather than raising them, the next six weeks set up as a contest between the bears who have rebuilt conviction and the bulls pointing to compressed multiples and a management team with a stated B2B growth story to tell.
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