BLDP heads into October with the stock down nearly 6% on the week, a strategic shareholder still in the process of reducing its position, and a borrowing market that has quietly tightened over the past month.
The most telling story right now is not the short sellers but the ownership picture. Weichai Power, the Chinese industrial giant that is still BLDP's single largest shareholder at around 8.8% of shares, has filed three Schedule 13D amendments this year and sold again in July, trimming another 151,350 shares at roughly CAD 3.55. That follows a much larger disposal in May, when Weichai shed nearly 3.9 million shares. The 13D classification matters: Weichai is on record as an activist holder rather than a passive one, and its stake has slipped from 11.61% to 10.32% across these disclosed filings. Stakes are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold, meaning further reductions may not trigger an immediate filing, but the direction of travel over 2026 has been consistently lower. With the stock now trading at CAD 2.97, almost exactly half the price at which Weichai sold in May, the strategic relationship between Ballard and its anchor investor is worth watching closely.
Short interest is a relatively minor factor in the current setup, at just over 2.2% of the free float. What is more interesting is the pace of change. SI climbed 18% over the past month, driven largely by a jump in early September when borrowed shares rose from around 5.7 million to more than 7.5 million before pulling back. The current level of 6.65 million shares short is lower than that September peak but still above where it was in August. Borrowing costs have also risen, more than doubling since late August to just above 1%, a 30-day high. Availability remains very loose at around 303% of short interest, meaning there is no squeeze dynamic at work, but the steady increase in both cost and short positioning is a change in direction worth noting.
The broader positioning picture looks cautious rather than stressed. The ORTEX short score has eased from 41.5 in mid-September to 40.0 now, moving away from elevated territory. Factor scores place BLDP in the 35th percentile on short score rank and the 27th on utilization rank, both middling readings that confirm the stock is not a battleground name on the short side. EPS surprise ranks in the 68th percentile, one of the few scores that flatters the company, though the valuation data in the snapshot is stale by several months and should not be relied upon at current price levels.
Earnings history adds a note of caution ahead of the next print, scheduled for October 30. The two most recent quarters both saw the stock fall after results: a 7.5% one-day drop in August and a 0.8% decline at the end of July, with five-day moves of minus 5.4% and minus 6.2% respectively. Neither reaction was catastrophic, but the pattern of post-earnings weakness is consistent. Among close peers, PLUG fell nearly 9.5% on the week, CWR dropped 9.1%, and ENVX lost about 10%, suggesting the green-energy and fuel-cell cohort has broadly sold off this week, with BLDP performing in line rather than standing out.
With the October 30 earnings date on the calendar, the question heading into the print is whether Weichai's continued trimming reflects a view on near-term fundamentals, and whether short sellers who quietly added exposure through September will be tested by any positive surprise from the results.
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