Nebius Group closes out September with a subtly better-looking setup than the contradictory one described in last week's notes: short interest has edged lower, borrow conditions have loosened, and the analyst register now carries a high-conviction upgrade that dwarfs the bear-case initiation from a week ago.
The most concrete change since the prior note is in the lending market. Availability has improved to 68.8%, up from 46% a week ago, meaning borrow supply has opened up rather than tightened further. That reverses the concern flagged on September 22, when availability was shrinking fast. Cost to borrow has also eased, falling 16.6% on the week to 0.70%, the lowest level since mid-September and well clear of the 1.75% peak seen in late August. Short interest itself has dipped slightly: 46.3 million shares short at the close, down from the 46.6 million reading earlier in the week, leaving the float-adjusted figure at 21.2%. That is barely changed month-on-month in absolute terms, though it is down sharply from August's 63-million peak. The ORTEX short score has been remarkably stable, holding between 68 and 68.7 all month, consistent with a position that is large but neither escalating nor unwinding quickly. What has changed is that shorts are no longer finding it harder to borrow, which removes one potential near-term catalyst.
The analyst picture is the week's bigger story. BNP Paribas upgraded NBIS to Outperform on September 24, lifting its target from $260 to $399. Against a stock trading near $237, that implies 68% upside and is the most aggressive bullish call on the register. It stands in direct contrast to the Rothschild initiation from September 21, which came in at a Sell with an $84 target. The gap between those two targets is extraordinary: $399 versus $84 against a $237 stock. Bulls, led by BNP and Truist (Buy, $355), anchor their case on the $40-plus billion contracted backlog, upfront prepayments covering 50-60% of capex, and the company's positioning as a credible alternative to hyperscalers on AI compute. Bears counter that the model requires over 1 GW per year of new builds, profitability remains distant with a negative 28% adjusted operating margin in 2026, and the shares already price in a strong 2028 outcome at 4.5x 2028 EV/sales. Six of the covering analysts hold a Buy or Outperform view, with no consensus price target published in the data, though the cluster of recent targets ($324 to $399 from buy-rated names) sits comfortably above the current price. DA Davidson remains the outlier at Neutral with a $250 target.
Institutional ownership adds another layer worth noting. Goldman Sachs has filed a 13G/A disclosing a 10.5% stake, up from 7.2% previously, making it the largest disclosed institutional holder. NVIDIA Corporation filed its own 13G in July at 9.3%, a strategic rather than passive signal given the supplier relationship between the two companies. The co-founder and chief architect Arkady Volozh holds 10.75%, and Situational Awareness LP entered the 13G register in May with 5.6%. No 13D activists appear on the register. The caveat applies: these are event-driven disclosures, and positions are as last filed around the 5% threshold.
Insider activity is limited and carries low signal this week. Director John Wilson IV sold just under $1.1 million across a cluster of trades on September 15, all executed under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. Planned disposals under 10b5-1 carry no informational edge over the market.
The earnings calendar is the next fixed point. NBIS reports on November 12, 43 days out. The most recent print, in August, produced a 32% single-day move followed by a further 16% gain over the subsequent five sessions. The one before that saw the stock drop 21% on the day before recovering 20% over the following week. The pattern is consistent: large, violent, often reversible moves around each print. With shorts still sitting at 21% of the float and borrow now looser than it was a week ago, the composition of positioning heading into that event is worth tracking closely.
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