RACE enters October with an unusual tension: the stock's lending market is among the most relaxed in its sector, yet its ORTEX short score has risen sharply over the past two weeks, and the family holding company that built Ferrari's float has quietly reduced its stake by more than a third.
The short score is the sharpest week-on-week mover in the data. It has climbed from 35.9 on September 16 to 41.0 by September 29, a gain of roughly five points in ten sessions, the fastest acceleration in the available history. This is not yet an extreme reading, Ferrari's short score ranks in the 37th percentile of its universe, but the direction of travel is worth noting. Short interest itself remains very low in absolute terms. Cost to borrow has drifted up about 8% on the week to 0.93%, still well within normal territory. Borrow availability is genuinely loose, with over 53 million shares available in the lending pool against what is already borrowed, a ratio that puts availability near 784%, comfortably above its 52-week floor of 433%. Nothing in the lending market suggests bears are pressing a conviction trade; the rising short score reflects a gradual tilt rather than aggressive positioning.
The analyst community remains broadly constructive. The consensus price target is EUR 389.44, roughly 11% above the current price of EUR 352.05, which recovered 1.2% on the final day of the quarter after a week that erased about 2.5%. No recent analyst changes are recorded in the dataset. Valuation multiples tell a familiar story for Ferrari: the P/E ratio has compressed slightly over the past month, down about 1.5 turns to 32.8x, while P/B has similarly eased about 0.8x to 13.0x. EV/EBITDA, by contrast, has crept up 0.04 turns on the week to 19.7x. The factor score picture is balanced: EPS surprise ranks in the 68th percentile and dividend score at 65, while value remains the acknowledged weakness, with the EV/EBIT rank in just the 16th percentile. The bull case for Ferrari rests on its pricing power and order-book visibility; the most recent note in the data records record Q3 revenue of EUR 1.46 billion and raised full-year guidance, with a 4.2% single-day price reaction on results day in late July. The bear case centres on the premium multiple, which leaves little room for error if demand for personalisation or supercar volumes softens.
The activist register is the most structurally significant element of this week's setup. Exor N.V., the Agnelli family vehicle, filed a Schedule 13D/A in January disclosing a reduction in its Ferrari stake from 31.8% to 21.3%. That is a decrease of more than 10 percentage points in the largest single shareholder. Lingotto Investment Management, also affiliated with the Agnelli family, holds another 19.6% as the top institutional position, though that figure was last reported in February and has not moved on record. As a disclosure caveat: 13D/G filings are event-driven around the 5% threshold, so actual current levels may differ from the last filing date of January 6. BlackRock has moved in the opposite direction, adding over 6.6 million shares to reach 3.6% as of late September. JP Morgan Asset Management also added materially, putting roughly 1.25 million shares onto its books. Insider activity over the past 90 days has been exclusively on the sell side, with the CHR Officer, Chief Purchasing Officer and Chief Industrial Officer each trimming small positions worth a combined EUR 721,000 net, all scored at low significance.
Ferrari's earnings history in the data shows a muted day-one reaction to its last two prints. The July 2026 release produced a next-day move of just 0.09%, followed by a five-day gain of 4.7%. The May 2026 release saw a day-one drop of 1.7% and a five-day decline of 3.8%. The next scheduled print is November 3.
What to watch into that date: whether the short score's upward drift continues toward territory that would attract more systematic attention, and whether further Exor reduction filings appear, since any additional decrease in the family's declared stake would accelerate the question of who absorbs the float.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open RACE on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
