Inventiva has now reported, the stock barely moved on the day, and short sellers are not backing off.
The borrow market described in last week's pre-results note has, if anything, tightened further since the September 28 print. Availability has edged back down to 7.8%, meaning fewer than one share remains available to lend for every twelve already out. That compares with roughly 9.4% the day before results and a brief 10.9% reading on September 25. The cost to borrow has climbed to 14.1%, up 17.7% over the past week and 42.9% over the past month, its highest level in the 30-day history on record here. The ORTEX short score has accelerated in tandem, reaching 64.5 on September 29, up from 58.8 a week earlier and the highest reading in the tracked window. Together, these signals describe a lending market that remains nearly fully used, with short sellers paying more each week to hold positions and no meaningful new supply entering the pool.
The earnings reaction offered little to shift that conviction. The September 28 print produced a next-day move of just 0.9%, essentially flat. The one prior event with a five-day reading attached, from August, saw the stock fall 0.6% on the day and 5.7% over the following week. Neither print delivered the kind of catalyst that would force a quick cover. The ORTEX short score ranking sits at the 18th percentile of the broader universe, and the days-to-cover rank is at the 16th, both reflecting a lending market that is tight but not yet at the extreme where a squeeze becomes mechanically plausible. The 52-week low for availability was 4.3%, reached briefly in mid-August; current levels are elevated but not at that floor.
The Street view on the stock is thin. The mean analyst price target is EUR 10.02 against a current price of EUR 2.87, a gap wide enough that the target almost certainly reflects stale or limited coverage rather than a current consensus view, and should not be taken at face value. Inventiva is pre-revenue, with negative earnings yield, negative book value multiples, and an EPS momentum factor score of just 6 out of 100 on the 30-day basis. The one factor score that stands out is eps_12m_fwd_yoy_increase at the 86th percentile, which reflects the mathematical reality of improving from deeply negative rather than a path to near-term profitability. Quality and value signals carry no weight here; this is purely a pipeline story.
The institutional register is the most constructive element in the picture. Several specialist life-science funds built positions in the most recent reported quarter. Samsara BioCapital added 5.2 million shares to reach 5.7% of the company. Deep Track Capital added 3.0 million shares to a 4.4% stake. Caligan Partners added 3.2 million shares, reaching 3.5%. Those moves were against a backdrop of a falling stock, which suggests these are conviction adds rather than momentum-following. On the insider side, five board members each bought 50,000 shares at EUR 0.68 on August 27, a coordinated signal of board-level confidence at prices well below the current level.
The stock fell 6.4% over the past week and 28.3% over the past month to close at EUR 2.87. Close peers had a similarly difficult week: PRAX fell 6.5%, MLYS dropped 16.7%, and ELDN lost 13.5%, pointing to broad sector pressure rather than Inventiva-specific news flow driving the decline. ABVX held up better, off just 3.0%.
The next scheduled event is November 9. Between now and then, the question is whether the sustained cost of maintaining short positions at 14% annualised borrow begins to erode the economics of holding those positions, or whether fresh pipeline news gives bears a new reason to stay in.
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