Nextdoor Holdings heads into October in an unusual position: a prominent activist on the register, insiders selling steadily under pre-arranged plans, and short sellers who have barely pressed their advantage despite a stock trading well below $3.
The borrow market signals almost no conviction from short sellers. Short interest is just 2.75% of the free float, roughly 6.7 million shares, and has risen only 17% over the past month, a moderate drift rather than a deliberate build. Availability is effectively unlimited, with over 137 million shares available to borrow against a short position of under 7 million. Cost to borrow closed Tuesday at 0.78%, down sharply from a brief spike to 2.69% on Monday that proved short-lived. With days-to-cover at 2.87 per the most recent FINRA filing, there is no squeeze dynamic here. The ORTEX short score of 33.7 sits in the 55th percentile for short-score rank, consistent with an unexciting borrow setup. Options reinforce the picture: the put/call ratio at 0.064 is essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.066, and far below the 52-week high of 0.170. There is no hedging pressure worth noting.
The activist angle is the more consequential story. J. William Gurley filed a Schedule 13D/A in February 2025 declaring a 19.1% stake, some 52.8 million shares. A 13D filing signals active intent, not passive ownership, and that remains on the register. As always with 13D/G disclosures, stakes are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold, and holders can move below 5% without a further filing. Benchmark, a Gurley-associated venture firm, independently holds a reported 13.6% of shares. Nirav Tolia, a co-founder, holds 8.2% and added 284,000 shares as of mid-July. BlackRock added 1.17 million shares to reach 5.6%, and several passive managers have been slowly building. That ownership structure, with a 13D activist above 19%, a co-founder still accumulating, and major index managers adding, provides a relatively firm floor in the register.
Insider selling over the past 90 days has been a steady but modest counterweight. Net sales total around 487,000 shares, worth roughly $1.19 million at prevailing prices. Every transaction in the record carries a 10b5-1 pre-arranged plan designation, which strips out the discretionary signal that matters most. The Chief Revenue Officer sold 50,000 shares on September 22 at $2.54 under a plan. The Chief Accounting Officer exercised and immediately sold shares on multiple occasions in September. The Chief Legal Officer sold a token 2,500 shares in August. None of these are conviction-driven discretionary sales.
On the Street, analyst coverage is limited and the most recent updates are from mid-August. B. Riley upgraded to Buy and raised its target to $3.30 post the August earnings beat. Citigroup, at Neutral, lifted its target to $2.85 from $2.30. The consensus mean target is $3.35, implying roughly 37% above the current $2.45 close. That said, the August print showed a strong market reaction: the stock moved nearly 10% the day after results and held most of the gain over the following week. Factor scores on earnings momentum are weak, ranking in the 10th to 27th percentile, and the EPS surprise rank at 27 is unimpressive. The EV/EBITDA multiple has crept up to 13.7x over the past week, and price-to-book has expanded to 2.2x over the past month, reflecting the stock's 8% gain in September. The net income margin remains deeply negative.
The next earnings event is scheduled for November 3. Given the two most recent post-earnings moves of roughly 8% to 10% in each direction, that date is the clearest event risk on the calendar between now and year-end, and how Gurley's 13D presence shapes management's tone on that call may be as consequential as the revenue line itself.
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