TeraWulf has reversed sharply from the highs flagged in last week's note, dropping 13% to $15.09 after a 20% surge took the stock to $17.33 just days ago. The short base that refused to cover into that rally now looks vindicated, at least for now.
Short interest has barely moved through all of it. Bears held 28.6% of the free float as of September 29, up 1.1% on the week and 7.8% over the past month, roughly 120 million shares sitting stubbornly in place. The ORTEX short score of 68.4 has been flat to slightly lower over the past two weeks, suggesting no meaningful capitulation in either direction. What has changed is the availability picture. Availability has eased back to 126.8%, up from the 94 to 97% range seen in mid-September, meaning the lending pool has refilled and new shorts face no friction in adding exposure. Borrowing costs are low at 0.56% per annum, down 24% over the past month. Together these two metrics say the structural short is comfortable, not squeezed, and not expensive to run.
Options traders have turned notably bullish. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.33, almost two standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.36, near the lowest reading of the past year. That is the mirror image of the short book: one side of the market is hedging against upside, the other is positioned for the downside. The collision of a near-record-low PCR against a near-record-high SI percentage is the defining tension on this stock right now.
The Street is firmly constructive, but the spread between analyst targets and current price is widening as the stock fades. UBS initiated at Buy with a $24 target on September 23. Wells Fargo started at Overweight with a $30 target on September 17. Those two names join an 18-analyst buy consensus with a mean target of $33.69, implying well over 100% upside from current levels. The bull case centres on the Anthropic lease, which covers 401 MW and is expected to generate roughly $19 billion in contracted revenue over its initial term. HPC revenue already accounted for 71% of total revenue in Q2 2026. The bear case is more immediate: the mining business ran an all-in cost of $97,486 per coin against a realized price of $71,704 last quarter, and adjusted EBITDA missed. Morgan Stanley, which carries the highest target of any firm in the panel at $62.50, did trim that figure from $72 in August while keeping its Overweight rating. The data says the Street is bullish but trimming ambition at the margin.
CEO Paul Prager is on the 13D register with a 10.7% stake as last disclosed in August 2025. That filing carries activist intent, though stakes are event-driven disclosures and positions can move below 5% without a further filing. In the recent insider ledger, the net 90-day activity is a modest sell of around $5.1 million across 312,000 shares. Director Catherine Motz sold just under $1 million on September 8. Director Walter Carter sold $1.98 million on August 31. Prager's own August 27 sale of $2.35 million was executed under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, which reduces its signal value. Director Michael Bucella ran against the grain, buying small amounts across three separate dates in August and September. The overall picture is mild net selling from directors, offset in part by Bucella's consistent open-market accumulation.
The peer group fell in lockstep this week. CORZ dropped 13.2%, CIFR fell 13.5%, IREN lost 14.8%, and RIOT declined 14.2%. WULF at minus 12.9% was neither a standout laggard nor a relative bright spot. The selloff was broad, suggesting sector-level pressure rather than company-specific news driving the reversal.
The next earnings event is November 10. With 41 days to go, the conversation between now and then will turn on whether the contracted HPC pipeline can produce enough visible progress to keep analysts defending their targets as the stock trades at half the consensus price.
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