HUT heads into October having surrendered most of last week's gains, down 13% over seven days to $92.86, while short sellers have used the pullback to add meaningfully to positions. The bears who sat firm through the September rally are now being rewarded with a more aggressive stance.
Short interest has climbed 10% by share count over the past week, reaching 15.5% of the free float with 16.7 million shares held short. That is a 33% increase since late August. The direction of travel has clearly shifted: whereas the previous note flagged bears sitting on a 22% rally without capitulating, they are now actively pressing. Cost to borrow has risen 36% on the week to 0.55%, its highest level of the past six weeks, though in absolute terms it remains cheap. The borrow market itself stays loose, with availability running at 773% of short interest, meaning there are roughly seven shares available for every one already borrowed. That combination, rising short interest alongside ample borrow supply, suggests the build is demand-driven rather than a symptom of any squeeze mechanics. Bears can add without friction.
Options positioning, by contrast, tells a calmer story. The put/call ratio is 0.43, fractionally below its 20-day mean of 0.44, with a z-score near flat at minus 0.19. Options traders are not defensively positioned relative to recent norms, even as short sellers grow more aggressive. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.31 to 0.79, and the current reading sits toward the lower end, reflecting a market where call interest has not collapsed but put demand has not spiked either.
The Street is heavily bullish, which sharpens the disagreement with short sellers. All 15 analysts tracked carry buy-equivalent ratings, and three new initiations arrived in the past ten days. UBS started coverage with a Buy and a $143 target, Wells Fargo came in at Overweight with $175, and Rothschild initiated at Neutral with a $96 target, the only dissenting voice among recent new coverage. The mean price target is $157, implying roughly 69% upside from the current price. The bull case rests on the company's 1 GW-plus energy platform, long-dated contracted compute leases including a 15-year, $7 billion deal at River Bend backed by Google, and Bitcoin mining optionality through American Bitcoin Corp. The bear case is more immediate: interest on the $7.5 billion of project financing is already flowing through results, EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been cut sharply to minus $4.58 and minus $2.27 respectively, and the path to profitability remains dependent on Bitcoin price support and flawless execution on further AI lease conversions. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed 17 points over the past month to 77.8x, a meaningful re-rating, though the earnings yield remains deeply negative.
Insider activity adds a cautious undertone. A director sold $2 million of stock at $100 on September 24, a discretionary sale not conducted under a 10b5-1 plan, at a price above where the stock now trades. The CFO sold shares in late August as well. Net insider activity over the past 90 days totals a disposal of roughly 26,400 shares worth $2.5 million. There are no open-market purchases on the register to balance that flow. The ownership picture from institutions is more constructive: Coatue holds 7.9%, BlackRock has been adding and now holds 7.7%, and Vanguard Portfolio Management crossed the 5% threshold as recently as July, though all stakes carry the usual caveat that 13D/G filings reflect positions as last disclosed around the 5% threshold and holders can exit below that level without further disclosure.
Peers moved in a tight band on the week, with RIOT down 14%, CORZ down 13%, and MARA down 12%. The sector pullback is broad. HUT's earnings history suggests the market has not rewarded results: the two most recent prints produced a 10% next-day decline and a 17% next-day decline respectively, with five-day moves of minus 10% and minus 21%. The next earnings event is scheduled for November 4, 35 days away.
With short interest still climbing, the borrow market wide open, and two consecutive earnings releases that punished the stock, the shape of November 4 and the Bitcoin price between now and then are the variables that will determine whether the bears pressing here are early or right on time.
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