TRAX enters the final quarter of 2026 with a striking disconnect: the Street is aggressively initiating coverage with buy ratings and targets well above the current price, yet short interest has climbed sharply and the stock has shed 12% in a week.
The short positioning is the most active it has been in months. Shares short have risen 18% over the past week and are up 22% from a month ago, reaching roughly 4.6 million shares as of September 29. The float percentage is unavailable given the clinical-stage structure, but the raw directional build is notable. Borrowing costs, however, tell a very different story: cost to borrow has fallen 43% over the week to just 0.48%, a firmly low level by any measure. Availability is wide open at roughly 674%, meaning for every share currently borrowed there are nearly seven more sitting in the lending pool. That combination, rising short positions alongside cheap and plentiful borrow, points to an orderly, low-friction bearish bet rather than a crowded or stressed short. Options positioning leans the same way: the put/call ratio is 0.27, below its 20-day average of 0.29, and well off the 52-week high of 0.88. Call activity dominates, which sits oddly against the short build.
The Street's bullish convictions are hard to miss. Three firms initiated coverage within the past two weeks alone. Canaccord Genuity opened with a Buy at $50 on September 30. Evercore ISI Group launched at Outperform with a $65 target on September 18. Guggenheim was the most aggressive, kicking off coverage at Buy with a $100 target on September 16. Those initiations follow a cluster of August upgrades after what appears to have been a positive data readout, with Barclays raising its target from $48 to $65, Wedbush from $60 to $70, and Piper Sandler moving from $54 to $95, all maintaining positive ratings. The mean target across nine buy-rated analysts is $70, nearly double the current price of $35.98. The bull case centres on ANB033, a CD122 antagonist targeting celiac disease, eosinophilic esophagitis, and vitiligo, with risk-adjusted peak sales estimated around $5.4 billion across those indications and FDA Fast Track Designation already secured for celiac. The bear case is the mirror image: Phase 1b data only, no revenue, a crowded EoE market where Dupixent is entrenched, and a rheumatoid arthritis program that management itself acknowledges will need external capital to advance.
The institutional register reflects a company that attracted significant new capital around its listing. EcoR1 Capital holds 8.9% of shares, TCG Crossover 8.1%, and Sirenia Capital 7.0%, with all three positions entered in 2026 and disclosed as passive 13G filings. FMR (Fidelity) at 5.7% and BlackRock at 5.5% have also filed 13Gs, suggesting index and quant-driven buying alongside the specialist healthcare names. Notably, the last_change_shares figures for all top holders match their total positions, which indicates these are largely new stakes rather than incremental additions to pre-existing ones. Sanofi's presence as a 2.3% holder is worth registering: strategic pharma interest in the IL-15/CD122 mechanism has been cited by bulls as validation of the platform, and recent acquisitions in that space are part of the bull thesis. There are no 13D activist filers on the register; stakes are as last disclosed and holders dropping below 5% may exit without further filing.
Earnings are due November 12, and recent history around results has been rough. Three of the four most recent earnings dates produced negative one-day moves, with the worst a fall of 8.3% and a subsequent five-day slide of 9.1%. The one positive day, June 2026, still ended the following week in negative territory. Clinical readouts rather than earnings beats are what move the stock, and the near-term catalyst calendar is what analysts are focused on: topline Phase 1b data in celiac disease and EoE cohorts are expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 respectively.
The key variable into November is whether the widening gap between analyst targets and the current price closes through the stock rising or through targets getting cut. The short build alongside cheap borrow suggests some participants are betting on the latter, while the wave of new initiations argues the opposite: what to watch is which side the clinical data calendar answers first.
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