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Ford has shed 12% in a month and now trades at $12.27, more than 23% below the average analyst price target of $16.03. Short positions have continued to build. The Q3 earnings date is 24 days away.
Short interest reached 114.3 million shares as of October 1, equivalent to 2.9% of the free float. That is up 14.8% over the past week and up roughly 11% over the past month. The build is steady and sustained rather than episodic.
Despite the accumulation, the borrow market is exceptionally loose. Availability sits at 5,415%, meaning there are more than 54 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. Cost to borrow has dropped a further 57% this week to 0.23%, the lowest reading in the period covered by the data. Bears face no structural friction whatsoever. The cost to hold a short position here is negligible.
The put-call ratio stood at 1.02 on October 1, holding above the 20-day mean of 0.96. Two weeks ago the reading hit 2.5 standard deviations above that mean. It has not fully retreated. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.64 to 1.24, so the current reading still sits in the upper half. Options traders continue to lean toward protection.
ORTEX Alt Data covering Ford's European registrations provides corroborating colour, though none of the datasets have been shown to lead the company's revenue figures. Italian new-car registrations for Ford across the current quarter (July to September, with all three months now in) ran 25% below the same quarter a year ago, at 9,013 vehicles. German KBA registrations for the same window are running 26% above last quarter but only two of three months are in, so the quarterly picture is incomplete. The Dutch record low of 1,024 vehicles in August, flagged in a prior convergence report, remains the starkest single data point.
Ford's captive finance arm also carries an allowance for credit losses of $937 million, which has risen for six consecutive quarters per ORTEX Alt Data.
Q3 results on October 26 are the next hard catalyst. The analyst consensus sits at $16.03, implying the Street believes the current share price substantially undervalues the business. Citigroup upgraded to Buy in late July with a $20 target. The tension between that bullish framing and the steady accumulation of short positions will resolve when Ford reports.
Data summary
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