POET Technologies enters October with a notable split: short interest has stabilised near its rebuilt level while the borrow market has swung sharply looser, pulling cost to borrow to a multi-month low.
Ten days ago this column flagged that shorts were quietly rebuilding after a mid-September flush, with availability tightening and cost to borrow climbing to 0.80%. That borrow story has now reversed. Cost to borrow dropped 38% on the week to just 0.44%, its lowest in over a month. Availability has expanded to 89.5%, up from 70.8% the prior session and well above the 33% to 40% range that characterised late August. The lending pool has opened up markedly, even as short interest itself barely moved. At 17.0% of the free float, SI is up 6.5% on the week but still about 13% below its August peak. Shorts are holding their rebuilt positions, but they are no longer paying up to do so. That combination, sticky SI with loosening borrow costs, points to a market where bears are comfortable staying put rather than pressing further.
Options traders tell the opposite story. The put/call ratio is running at 0.157, essentially flat with its 20-day mean of 0.160 and far closer to the 52-week low of 0.027 than the high of 0.426. Call volume continues to dominate the options tape by a wide margin. The short score of 66.1 has ticked down slightly from its recent peak of 66.5, but remains elevated, placing POET in the bottom 6th percentile for short positioning across its sector. The tension between heavy short interest and call-heavy options positioning that defined the late September setup remains unresolved.
Analyst data on POET is stale, with the most recent price target changes dating to late 2024. At that time, both Northland Capital Markets and Craig-Hallum carried Outperform and Buy ratings with targets in the $5.50 to $7.00 range. The mean price target in the system sits at $14.75, but that figure appears to reflect older or inconsistent data relative to a stock now trading at $7.64, and should be treated with caution. The ORTEX short score rank of 6 out of 100 reflects extreme bearish positioning in the factor model, while the EPS surprise score of 41 and dividend score of 18 confirm this remains a pre-profitability growth story with no income support.
The 13D/G register carries several large passive holders. MMCAP International holds 9.99% as last disclosed, down from 11.0% in a recent amendment. Kenneth Griffin disclosed a 5.9% stake in July. Jane Street trimmed from 6.8% to 5.5% in its August amendment, and Group One Trading fell from 5.5% to 0.7% in a September filing, effectively exiting a position it had built just weeks earlier. These are passive Schedule 13G disclosures, not activist positions, and stakes can change materially without a further filing once a holder drops below 5%. The net insider picture over the past 90 days shows modest open-market selling of around $233,000 in value, alongside a batch of August compensation grants to senior management.
Earnings are pencilled in for November 13. The last four prints produced first-day moves of minus 2.3%, plus 8.0%, plus 11.1%, and plus 4.0%, so the stock has a track record of swinging sharply on results. Peer performance on the week was broadly positive: ASYS gained 12% and SITM added 5.5%, while POET slipped 1.4%. The divergence with faster-moving semis peers is the pattern to watch as the November catalyst approaches.
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