KOF reports Tuesday morning with short sellers in retreat and the stock riding an 8.5% monthly gain. Short interest has collapsed nearly 48% over the past month to just 0.11% of the float — the squeeze coincides with a shift in how analysts are weighing the Mexican bottler's near-term upside.
The borrow market reflects the unwinding. Cost to borrow has doubled over the past month to 0.85%, yet utilisation sits at just 3.9% — well below the 52-week peak of 38%. Options positioning looks neutral heading into the print, with the put/call ratio running in line with its 20-day average at 0.37. The setup lacks the tension of past quarters, when shorts held significantly larger positions.
Analyst activity has been mixed in the run-up. JP Morgan lifted its target from $100 to $110 earlier this month while keeping a Neutral rating — a signal the firm sees the rally as largely justified but not a breakout call. UBS downgraded to Neutral from Buy in mid-March, trimming conviction even as Goldman and Barclays raised their targets into the $110–112 range earlier in the year. The consensus target of $115 implies another 12% upside from the current $102 close, yet the Street is becoming more selective. Recent moves suggest analysts still see value but are tempering expectations after the one-month run.
The company ranks in the 99th percentile for EPS surprise and dividend reliability, yet momentum scores have softened — EPS momentum over 90 days sits at the 87th percentile, down from the 97th on a 30-day view. Institutional holders have been quiet; BlackRock added 332,000 shares in the March quarter, but larger holders including Coca-Cola (27.8% stake) and FEMSA (47.2%) have not changed positions recently. After the last earnings event in late February, the stock jumped 4.4% the following day before giving back half a point over the next week — a pattern that suggests initial optimism often fades as investors digest the detail.
Tuesday's report will test whether the recent price move anticipates margin expansion or simply reflects a multiple re-rating in a market hungry for defensive consumer plays. The short squeeze has removed one source of volatility, leaving the print to stand on its own merit.
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