Options traders have made a decisive shift at KOF. The put-call ratio collapsed to 0.22 on April 30 — 3.73 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.37. That's the most bullish options positioning the stock has seen in months.
The timing lines up with something else: short sellers have been quietly exiting. Short interest fell 54% over the past month, dropping to just 0.09% of free float. At that level, the short trade is barely a rounding error. The story here isn't a squeeze — it's capitulation.
Short interest peaked above 400,000 shares in early April. It now sits at roughly 184,000. That's a dramatic unwinding over three weeks.
The cost to borrow has been erratic through the move. It briefly spiked to 4.43% APR on April 20. It then crashed back to 0.48% by April 27. As of April 29, it sits at 0.73% — cheap by any standard, and a signal that the borrow market is very relaxed. Availability is wide open, with the 52-week utilization peak at just under 38% now a distant memory.
JP Morgan raised its price target to $110 on April 16 — a $10 increase, maintaining its Neutral rating. Goldman Sachs holds a Buy with a $111 target. The consensus mean sits at $115.12, against a current price of $101.58. That's 13% implied upside baked into analyst models.
UBS downgraded KOF to Neutral from Buy in March. That's the only bearish note in recent analyst activity.
The fundamental backdrop is solid. The EPS surprise rank sits at the 99th percentile. Forward EPS year-on-year growth ranks at the 97th percentile. The dividend score ranks 84th percentile. The ORTEX short score is a low 28.5 — consistent with a name where bears are not pressing.
KOF trades at 13.2x trailing earnings and 6.9x EV/EBITDA. The next earnings event is scheduled for July 22.
What to watch: Whether the extreme options skew holds. A PCR of 0.22 at nearly –4 standard deviations is rare. If call positioning extends further, it would suggest this is conviction — not just a one-day print.
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