American Financial Group posted a +3% session on May 1. The options market is making its position clear.
The put/call ratio fell to 0.40 — nearly 2.9 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.48. That is the most aggressive call-buying tilt seen in months. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.0 to 0.97, putting current positioning firmly in bullish territory.
Short sellers have been exiting. SI fell 12.9% over the past week to 1.57% of float. Over the past month, the decline is 14.6%. At this level, AFG is not a heavily shorted stock — but the speed and scale of covering during the earnings window is notable. From late March through mid-April, short positions held in a range around 1.5–1.6 million shares. Then covering accelerated into the earnings date.
The stock rose 1.4% on its April 29 earnings print. It added another 3% on May 1.
Cost to borrow rose 40% over the past week to 0.45%. That is a meaningful move even if the absolute rate remains modest. Availability remains loose — the lending pool is not stressed — but the directional shift in borrow cost alongside covering activity suggests short sellers are paying a little more to hold the line.
Piper Sandler raised its price target to $135 from $129 on May 1, maintaining a Neutral rating. Wells Fargo holds an Overweight with a $155 target. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods sits at Market Perform with a $140 target. The mean analyst target stands at $141.83 — roughly 6.4% above the current $133.27.
The bull case centres on premium growth: net written premiums projected at $7.34 billion in 2025 and $7.72 billion in 2026. The bear case flags downward EPS revisions, with 2025 estimates cut to $9.90 from $10.10.
Stephen Lindner trimmed 283,198 shares in the most recent holder update. Both co-CEOs sold small positions in late February at $129.85 — below current levels.
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