Energy Transfer LP reports first-quarter results on May 5 with sentiment running decisively in the bulls' favour — options positioning is light on defensiveness, borrow conditions are easy, and the stock has just snapped back sharply from its April lows.
The options market signals calm rather than caution. The put/call ratio is running below its recent norm at 0.16, almost three-quarters of a standard deviation beneath its 20-day average of 0.17 — among the lowest defensive readings of the past year. Short interest reinforces that picture: bears hold just 0.84% of the free float, a level that has been shrinking steadily, falling more than 7% over the past month. Days to cover is a negligible 0.09. Borrow availability is wide open, with utilization near zero across the whole of April — the lending market shows no sign of squeeze pressure whatsoever. Cost to borrow has swung around over recent weeks, spiking briefly above 8% in late March before collapsing back to 2.5%, a move that looks more like routine fluctuation than a structural tightening of the borrow market.
The price action backs the bullish read. ET has climbed 3.3% over the past month to $19.94 and added 4.5% on the week, even after a modest 1.2% dip on May 1. That momentum has pushed the 14-day RSI to 75, well into overbought territory, and the stock is up nearly 20% year-to-date. With the mean analyst price target at $22.36 — about 12% above current levels — the Street retains a positive lean, though the most recent notable move was Morgan Stanley lifting its target to $21 in March while staying at Equal-Weight, a directional upgrade that stopped short of full endorsement. Wells Fargo carried the most bullish recent action, raising its Overweight target to $25 in mid-March.
The fundamental debate sits on familiar midstream ground. Bulls point to gathering-volume growth of roughly 25% since 2022 and the diversification benefit of assets like Sunoco, with projected revenue CAGR of 5% through the near term. Bears flag a free-cash-flow story that has been lumpy — capital expenditure growth eating into FCF — and a backlog that contracted 19% year-over-year in the most recent data, raising questions about the durability of volume growth. EPS momentum scores rank in the bottom quintile on both 30- and 90-day horizons, a caution flag even as the 12-month forward EPS trend ranks in the 76th percentile. The 6.85% forward yield, meanwhile, ranks in the 89th percentile on dividend quality, giving income-focused holders a strong reason to stay patient through any noise in the print. Peers KMI and OKE both outperformed ET on the day, gaining 3.2% and 3.5% respectively, suggesting the midstream complex broadly enjoyed tailwinds that ET only partially captured.
The May 5 print will test whether volume growth and distribution coverage can justify the stock's near-overbought technical positioning, or whether the short-term FCF trajectory gives the bulls pause at current levels.
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