BBD reports first-quarter results on May 6 with short sellers meaningfully less aggressive than they were just weeks ago.
The short-side story is the most striking feature of the setup. Estimated short interest has collapsed — down 77% over the past month to roughly 9.2 million shares as of April 30. The retreat began sharply after April 9, when short interest was running above 43 million shares during the peak tariff-anxiety selloff. Borrow costs spiked to over 8% on April 8, but have since normalised to around 0.55%. Availability in the lending market remains ample, with the ORTEX short score easing to 25.7 — well below its mid-April reading near 27.4 — confirming the broad-based reduction in bearish positioning.
Options positioning offers no contradiction. The put/call ratio is 0.78, almost exactly in line with its 20-day average of 0.77, with a z-score near zero. That is well below the 52-week high of 1.57, meaning there is no unusual demand for downside protection heading into the print. The stock itself has trimmed 2.5% on the week after a strong 5.2% gain over the prior month, leaving it at $3.84 — a mild pull-back rather than a meaningful reversal.
Analyst views are largely stale — the most recent changes date to May 2025 at the earliest, limiting how much weight they deserve. The formal consensus is a "hold," with Goldman Sachs the most visible voice; the firm cut its target to $2.30 in January 2025 before the stock's subsequent recovery. At the current price of $3.84, that target looks significantly outdated. The structural bull case rests on Bradesco's position as Brazil's second-largest private bank, with roughly 10-15% of domestic deposits and a 20-25% market share in insurance. Bears point to order-flow softness and macro sensitivity in a still-uncertain Brazilian economic environment.
Ownership is stable. Controlling shareholder Cidade de Deus holds 28.5% of shares with no change at the last report. BlackRock added over 43 million shares in the quarter to March 31, now holding 4.1% of the company. ARGA Investment Management trimmed its position by 37.5 million shares in the same period — the most notable institutional reduction on the register.
From a valuation standpoint, Bradesco trades at 8.1x trailing earnings and 1.19x book — both metrics up modestly over the past 30 days in line with the price recovery. The dividend score ranks in the 91st percentile, and days-to-cover ranks at the 96th percentile, reflecting just how light the short book has become relative to trading volume.
Past earnings reactions have been positive: the last two prints produced a 6.6% and a 1.6% one-day gain respectively, with the most recent delivering a 6% five-day follow-through. The May 6 print will test whether that positive momentum reflects genuine operating progress — particularly on credit quality and net interest margins — or whether it was primarily driven by the broader de-risking in Brazil-exposed names.
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