BBD heads into its May 6 Q1 results with shorts in full retreat — but a week of consolidation and a 4% single-day tick-up in short positions on April 28 adds a note of ambiguity to an otherwise bullish unwind.
The short-interest story here is the standout. Estimated short interest collapsed from roughly 43 million shares in early April — a spike that briefly coincided with peak global trade-war anxiety — to just over 9.3 million by April 28, a decline of nearly 25% week-on-week and around 21% month-on-month. That unwind has been steep and fast. The ORTEX short score dropped from 27.4 on April 20 to 25.6 by April 28, now ranking in the 91st percentile for low short squeeze pressure — meaning the positioning is far less hostile than it appeared just three weeks ago. Days-to-cover is under one day, placing BBD in the 97th percentile for ease of exit among its peers. Shorts that piled in during the early-April volatility have largely moved on.
The borrow market confirms that the pressure has eased. Cost to borrow collapsed from a peak of over 8% on April 8 — during the height of emerging-market risk-off — to just 0.48% by April 28, essentially back to pre-spike norms. Availability has loosened dramatically: what was a tight, expensive borrow a month ago is now barely registering in the lending pool. The April 8 episode looks less like a structural bear case and more like a temporary dislocation that has since unwound. Options positioning supports the calmer read — the put/call ratio is a mild 0.78, barely half a standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.78, well off the 52-week high of 1.57 reached when the market was more genuinely defensive on Brazil.
The Street's view on Bradesco is best characterised as cautiously constructive but stale. The analyst data is dated — the most recent formal consensus recorded by ORTEX runs to early March, and the most recent rating changes in the database are several months old. Goldman Sachs was at Buy with a $2.30 target as of January 2026, which sits well below the current $3.88 price, suggesting the Street may not have fully updated its models. HSBC upgraded to Buy in January 2025 with a $2.80 target. The only current consensus data shows two Hold ratings, implying limited formal coverage or incomplete data capture. With the stock up 17% year-to-date, the valuation has clearly moved faster than analyst revisions. P/E has expanded to 8.2x — up about 1.4 turns over 30 days — while P/B at 1.2x has risen roughly 15% on the same basis. At a forward yield of 6.7%, income considerations remain a meaningful part of the Bradesco investment case, and the dividend score ranks in the 90th percentile.
Institutional ownership is anchored by Brazil-domiciled entities. Cidade de Deus holds 28.5% of shares and Fundação Bradesco a further 8.6%, giving the controlling family and its foundation a combined stake north of 37%. Among international asset managers, BlackRock added nearly 44 million shares through Q1 2026 to reach 4.1%, while Vanguard added modestly to sit at 2.8%. The flow from both passive giants is incremental but consistent — a quiet endorsement of the EM valuation case. Fisher Asset Management, by contrast, trimmed aggressively, cutting by roughly 35 million shares as of December 2025.
Prior earnings prints have generally been modest movers. The March 31 event produced a 6.6% one-day gain and 6% over five days. The February prints each clocked around 1% on day one, fading modestly into the week. The pattern suggests Bradesco does not typically produce large earnings-day dislocations, though the March result is a reminder that positive surprises can generate meaningful upside. Closest peer BSBR, Banco Santander Brasil, fell only 0.3% on the week against BBD's 4.7% decline — a gap worth watching as both banks prepare to report in the coming days.
The May 6 print is the near-term focal point. With shorts having retreated to multi-month lows and borrow cheap, the next directional move will be driven by the numbers rather than positioning pressure.
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