LCID reports Q1 results on May 5 with one of the most aggressively short lending markets in the US equity universe — and a borrow cost that just doubled in a week.
The lending picture tells the most charged part of the story. Availability has been near zero for weeks, meaning the entire lending pool is currently spoken for. That is the tightest it has been all year. Cost to borrow nearly doubled in the past week alone, jumping from roughly 8% to 15.9% — though it has fallen sharply from the 33% peak seen in mid-April, suggesting a brief squeeze in that window. With short interest running at 14.3% of the free float and the ORTEX short score at 76 out of 100, short sellers are not backing away. Net short shares edged up about 1% on the day heading into the last trading session.
Options positioning offers a partial contrast. The put/call ratio has eased back to 1.33, actually below its 20-day average of 1.51 — a full standard deviation lighter on the bearish side. That divergence is notable: the lending market says shorts are fully committed, but options traders have trimmed their defensive positioning modestly. The stock itself has clawed back 5% in a week, but is still down 31% over the past month, closing at $6.54.
The analyst community has been consistently downward in its revisions. TD Cowen cut its target from $19 to $10 in mid-April, while Baird trimmed from $14 to $12. Both maintained neutral-to-hold ratings — a signal the Street sees little near-term catalyst rather than outright distress. The one constructive voice is Citigroup, which initiated at Buy with a $17 target in March. The mean target now sits around $12.77, roughly double the current price. Bears point to the deeply negative gross margin — approximately negative 105% in Q2 2025 — alongside tariff pressures and a market stripped of EV tax credits. Bulls are focused on the Gravity SUV launch and a midsize platform planned for late 2026, which carries a much larger addressable market than the Air sedan. The Uber partnership on robotaxi is also cited as a longer-term growth vector.
Ownership is itself a story. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund holds nearly 49% of shares. Uber disclosed a 10.4% stake as of mid-April, up by 24 million shares — a filing that reflects the robotaxi partnership. With two strategic holders dominating the cap table, the freely tradeable float is narrow, which amplifies both the short squeeze dynamics and any post-earnings volatility. The earnings print will test whether Q1 delivery volumes and the Gravity ramp provide any evidence that the gross margin trajectory can improve materially from its deeply negative base.
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