Lucid Group reports Q1 2026 results today against one of the tightest lending setups in the EV space — the borrow pool is completely exhausted, short interest is near 15% of float, and the stock has shed more than a third of its value in a month.
The lending picture is about as constrained as it gets. Availability has been at or near zero for virtually every session since late March — every share in the pool is already lent out, matching the 52-week maximum. That tightness has driven cost to borrow back up to 11.5%, more than double where it was two weeks ago, though notably down from the peak above 33% seen in mid-April. Short interest itself is running at 14.3% of the free float, up roughly 8% over the past month, placing LCID in the second percentile of the ORTEX universe by short-score rank. The ORTEX short score is 76.3 — a reading that has held in a narrow band all month, suggesting the bearish positioning is well-established rather than freshly building.
Options traders are less extreme than the borrow market implies. The put/call ratio is 1.40, modestly below its 20-day average of 1.50 — making this one of the less defensively positioned sessions of the past month. The z-score of -0.63 puts options sentiment slightly on the constructive side of neutral, a contrast worth noting given how fully the lending market is stretched. The stock itself closed at $6.25, down nearly 37% over the past month, but recovered 6.5% on the week — a bounce that came alongside the slight easing in put demand.
The analyst community is divided in direction. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Neutral with a $14 target just two days ago. TD Cowen cut its target to $10 from $19 in mid-April while holding at Hold. Citigroup, which initiated coverage in March with a Buy and a $17 target, represents the bull camp — its thesis rests on the Gravity SUV launch, a midsize platform due in the second half of 2026, and a robotaxi partnership with Uber (which now holds a 10.4% stake). Bears point to a deeply negative gross margin — around negative 105% as of Q2 2025 — persistent supply chain exposure, and the removal of the EV tax credit. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund remains the anchor shareholder at 48.7%, providing financial runway that bulls lean on and that bears view as the primary reason dilution risk remains elevated.
The Q1 print will test whether Gravity demand is translating into a gross margin trajectory that gives investors a credible path out of the current loss profile — or whether the cost structure remains as punishing as it was in mid-2025.
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