Short sellers have been walking away from EMBJ at a striking pace in the weeks before Thursday's Q1 2026 earnings report — and the lending market reflects a position that is more relaxed than charged.
Bearish conviction has collapsed over the past month. Estimated shares short have fallen by more than half since early April, dropping 57% to roughly 987,000 shares by May 4. The slide has been consistent: from a peak near 2.5 million shares in mid-April, bears have reduced exposure almost every session. The borrow market confirms the reset — cost to borrow is just 0.46%, near multi-month lows, and availability is wide. With utilisation at only 6%, compared to a 52-week high of 36%, there is ample room in the lending pool and no sign of squeeze pressure. The ORTEX short score has declined in lockstep, now at 28.5 — well below recent highs around 33 from late April.
Options positioning is notably calm. The put/call ratio is 0.70, nearly in line with its 20-day average of 0.71 and a z-score of essentially zero. That is a far cry from the defensive hedging seen in late March and early April, when the ratio climbed as high as 0.99. Investors appear neither braced for a miss nor pressing an optimistic bet. The stock itself has been equally measured — up just 1.9% over the past month to $63.93, and down about 2.7% year-to-date. The RSI at 48.9 places it squarely in neutral territory.
The fundamental picture is more constructive. Analysts carry a unanimous buy consensus — nine buys, no holds or sells — with a mean price target of $81.93, implying roughly 28% upside from current levels. JP Morgan raised its target from $80 to $84 in March while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing improving momentum. The balance sheet is in a net cash position of around $555 million, EV/EBITDA trades at 11.2x on a forward basis, and estimated revenue approaches $8.5 billion. EPS surprise ranks in only the 23rd percentile, however — meaning the company has historically had a mixed record on beating estimates — and the prior two earnings events both produced negative reactions, with the stock falling 3% and 14% on the day in Q4 and Q3 2025 respectively, and losing further ground over the following five sessions.
The Q1 print will test whether the reset in short positioning and the flat options market reflect genuine confidence in results — or simply a pause before the next reaction.
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