EMBJ heads into its May 5 Q1 results with short sellers unwinding at a sharp pace — creating one of the more notable positioning reversals in the aerospace sector this week.
Short interest has fallen by more than 40% over the past month, reaching roughly 1.18 million shares as of April 28. That is a dramatic retreat from peak levels above 2.5 million shares in early April, when tariff-driven macro anxiety was driving broad-based selling across aerospace names. The ORTEX short score has dropped in tandem, falling from 33.3 on April 22 to 29.4 by April 28 — the lowest reading in the recent window. The direction of travel is unambiguous: bears have been covering steadily and consistently for three weeks.
The borrow market reinforces that picture. Availability is ample, with cost to borrow running at just 0.42% — a multi-month low after peaking near 0.56% in mid-April. That makes borrowing cheap and frictionless; the shorts that are covering are not being squeezed out. Days to cover sits at 3.6, and the 52-week utilization peak was 36%, versus the current 7.2%. The lending market is loose. Options confirm the calmer tone: the put/call ratio at 0.63 is nearly one standard deviation below its 20-day mean of 0.77, reversing a sustained period of defensive positioning that ran through early April when the PCR was above 0.93. Hedging demand has faded visibly.
The Street is firmly on the bull side. Nine analysts carry buy ratings with no sells recorded, and JP Morgan — the only firm to move recently — raised its target to $84 from $80 in mid-March while keeping an Overweight. The mean target of $81.93 implies roughly 31% upside from Wednesday's close of $60.79. The P/E has edged up to 20.4x over the past month, and EV/EBITDA at 41.6x is elevated for the sector, though it has eased modestly over the past week. The factor score picture is mixed: the short score ranks in the 95th percentile, meaning few comparable stocks carry lower short-side pressure, while EPS surprise history ranks only in the 24th percentile — a flag worth watching into the print.
Institutional ownership is broad and well-distributed. BlackRock recently added 2.6 million shares to become the top holder at 5.85% of shares outstanding. American Century made the most significant recent move, adding 3.6 million shares to bring its stake to 1.96% as of March 31. The Brazilian state development bank BNDESPAR holds 5.6% and has been static — a strategic anchor rather than an active signal. Insider data is stale beyond the 90-day window; the most recent disclosed transaction was a nominal board purchase of 250 shares in June 2025, which carries no interpretive weight.
The earnings history provides useful context. At the March 2026 print, the stock dropped 3.1% on the day and slid 16% over the following five days. The prior event in March 2026 delivered a steeper one-day decline of 13.9% followed by a further 10.5% loss over the next week. Both results triggered multi-day weakness even in a strong aircraft cycle. The stock is now down 5.6% on the week and 3.7% on Wednesday alone — close peers VSEC and MRCY fell 6.8% and 4.0% respectively, so Embraer's weakness is broadly in line with aerospace sector pressure rather than a company-specific move.
With Q1 results scheduled for May 5, the question for the week ahead is whether the short-covering that has dominated April positioning reflects genuine fundamental confidence, or simply a reduction of risk ahead of a release that has twice produced sharp post-print drawdowns.
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