Flex Rallies 41% in a Month — Shorts Retreating Ahead of Earnings

Options tell a different story. Put/call ratios have been running unusually heavy. The PCR is 1.90 — persistently elevated above its 20-day average of 1.84, and not far from the 52-week high of 2.10 reached in late April. That sustained demand for puts, even as the stock has rallied sharply, points to investors hedging their long exposure rather than outright bearishness. The pattern has been consistent for several weeks: the PCR climbed from below 1.40 in late March to the current elevated range as the stock rerated upward. Holders appear to be protecting gains rather than adding fresh upside exposure.

The Street's direction of travel has been clearly bullish, but the pace of target upgrades has lagged the move. Stifel raised its target to $95 on April 20, and JP Morgan lifted to $84 the week prior — both meaningful moves, but the stock has since run through those levels. Six analysts carry buy-equivalent ratings, and the consensus is Buy, but with the share price now sitting above most published targets, the analyst community faces a credibility test next week. The analyst recommendation divergence score ranks in the 93rd percentile, suggesting the sell-side has been relatively more positive on FLEX than the broader market. Forward EPS estimates are also trending up, with 12-month forward growth expectations ranking in the 83rd percentile. The valuation expansion has been real: the price-to-earnings multiple has expanded by roughly 7 points over the past 30 days, with P/B up nearly 1.6 turns. The Jefferies Hold at a $23 target should be noted as almost certainly stale or reflecting a different instrument — that data point does not reconcile with the current setup and should be disregarded.

The most notable institutional move of recent months was BlackRock adding nearly 6.9 million shares to reach 13.6% of the company. That is a material step-up in the largest holder's position and adds a layer of institutional conviction underneath the recent rally. Vanguard also added significantly, though that reporting period ends March 31 and may reflect mechanical index activity. Insider activity over the past 90 days has been modestly net-selling — the COO sold $1.03 million in early March — but none of the transactions carry particularly high significance scores, and the selling occurred when the stock was trading in the $58–$62 range, well below current levels.

With earnings confirmed for May 13, the main focus is whether management guides with enough conviction on data centre demand and the Agility segment to justify the stock's re-rating — and whether the Street's price targets can finally catch the share price.