Triple Flag Precious Metals just reported a record Q1 — and the stock is still down 15% in a month.
That gap between operational strength and share-price weakness is the central tension heading into this week. Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $0.45, beating the $0.43 consensus estimate. Revenue hit $146.99M, fractionally below the $147M forecast. The company itself called it a record start to 2026. Yet TFPM closed Tuesday at CAD 42.50, off 3.5% on the week and nearly a fifth below where it traded in early April, when borrow costs briefly spiked to 4.22%.
The insider picture adds another layer of discomfort. Selling has been the consistent signal from the top of the company. In March, founder and CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy sold 25,000 shares at CAD 47.74, netting roughly USD 858K. Independent director Geoffrey Burns disposed of 100,000 shares at CAD 44.57 — a USD 3.2M sale — just days earlier. The dominant shareholder, Elliott Investment Management, trimmed its position by 567,512 shares in a single transaction worth over USD 20M. On a net basis, insiders generated approximately USD 29.2M in net proceeds over the past 90 days. None of these were distress sales — Elliott still holds 64.5% of shares outstanding — but the direction of travel is uniform. Every disclosed transaction at the executive and board level has been a sale.
Elliott's outsized stake is the structural fact that colours everything here. At 64.5% of shares, it functions less like a passive anchor and more like an overhang with a price-discovery problem. The slight trim in March is small in percentage terms but notable given the timing — the stock was still near its 52-week highs when those sales went through. Mirae Asset and Tidal Investments moved in the other direction, each adding meaningfully in Q1. Vanguard added 762,826 shares in the quarter. Those additions provide some counterweight, but none of these buyers are close to matching Elliott's scale.
Short positioning tells a quieter story. Short interest is minimal at under 1% of free float. Availability in the lending market is extremely loose — utilisation of borrowed shares is barely above 4%, well below the 52-week high of 15%. Borrow costs had a brief spike to 4.22% in early April during a patch of gold market volatility, but they have since collapsed to 0.62%, near the lowest level of the past two months. The ORTEX short score is 32.9, a mid-range reading that suggests no material bearish conviction is building in the institutional lending market. This is not a crowded short.
Factor scores offer modest support on some dimensions. The dividend score ranks at the 100th percentile — TFPM is one of the stronger dividend payers in its universe. EPS momentum over 90 days sits in the 59th percentile, consistent with a company that has been delivering on estimates. The picture turns less constructive on forward earnings: 12-month forward EPS growth ranks only in the 11th percentile, and EV/EBIT is in the 22nd percentile. The trailing PE of 21.5x has compressed roughly 2.5 points over the past 30 days, reflecting the price decline rather than any earnings upgrade cycle. Analyst data in the snapshot is too stale to be actionable — the most recent coverage dates are over two years old.
Precious metals royalty peers had a rough week too. FNV and WPM each fell roughly 3.5% on the week. OR dropped 4.4%. K underperformed the group, down 6%. Against that backdrop, TFPM's 3.5% weekly decline is roughly in line with the sector, suggesting the weakness is broad rather than company-specific. The earnings beat does not appear to have provided any relative cushion.
The next catalyst worth monitoring is whether Elliott's trimming pace accelerates, stalls, or reverses — and whether the record operational result prompts any fresh analyst coverage to fill what is currently a significant data gap on the Street.
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