Mativ Holdings reports Q1 2026 results on May 7 with options markets showing their most bullish posture in months — a sharp contrast to the stock's longer-term downtrend.
The options signal is the clearest thing going into today's print. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.34, nearly two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.44. That is the most call-skewed reading in months, and it represents a decisive break from the cautious hedging posture that dominated April. The shift began around May 1, when the PCR fell sharply from the 0.46 range that had held for most of April. Borrow conditions reinforce a picture of limited short-side pressure: availability is extraordinarily loose, with cost to borrow running at just 1.9% annually after falling 32% on the week. Short interest itself is modest at 2% of free float — down roughly 1.2% on the month — and the ORTEX short score of 32 sits well below the 50 midpoint. Bears are not crowding in ahead of this release.
The fundamental debate centres on whether Mativ can deliver any earnings normalisation from a deeply depressed base. Consensus estimates — where coverage is thin, with a single analyst tracked — point to normalised earnings of roughly $0.02 per share on quarterly revenue near $487 million. The EV/EBITDA multiple of around 6.3x is inexpensive on a historical basis, and the company's EPS surprise percentile ranks in the 99th percentile of the universe, meaning it has a strong recent track record of beating lowered expectations. The stock is down 27.5% year-to-date and trades at $9.29, near multi-year lows. Analyst coverage is sparse: Stifel upgraded to Buy from Hold back in March 2025 while simultaneously cutting the target to $10 — the only recent move on record, and one that already prices in a stressed scenario. The implied return potential to that lone target is around 130%, which says more about the beaten-down price than about analyst conviction.
The institutional picture shows some quiet accumulation. American Century added 508,814 shares through April, Vanguard added 194,225, and Dimensional and Allspring each increased positions in Q1. BlackRock remains the largest holder at 11.2% of shares. Recent insider activity is primarily composed of award-related sells — small in size and low significance — with the largest being the CEO's 84,000-share sale in March at $9.02, executed simultaneously with a large equity award and consistent with a planned diversification rather than a directional view.
The Q1 print will test whether Mativ's EBITDA trajectory is stabilising enough to justify even the modest multiple the market currently assigns it, and whether thin analyst coverage leaves room for positive surprise to move a stock that options traders are already leaning into from the long side.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open MATV on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
