Short sellers have rarely looked this committed to QXO ahead of a results date.
Short interest has climbed nearly 50% over the past month to 14.7% of the free float — roughly 99 million shares. The pace of that build is striking: positions were running at just under 66 million shares in early April and have risen almost every session since. The ORTEX short score has moved in lockstep, reaching 79.3 and ranked in the first percentile of the universe. Borrow availability has tightened sharply along the way. The lending pool is close to capacity — availability has compressed from around 60% in mid-April to under 10% at the start of last week before easing slightly. Cost to borrow rose fivefold between mid-April and late April, peaking near 5.4%, before pulling back to 2.2% as borrow demand stabilised. With the stock down 16% over the past month to $18.44, short sellers have momentum on their side heading into Thursday.
Options positioning tells a more neutral story, and that contrast is worth noting. The put/call ratio is running at 0.59 — modestly above its 20-day average of 0.55 but less than half a standard deviation out. There is no unusual hedging demand in the options market. Calls still dominate open interest. That divergence — aggressive short-side positioning in the equity lending market, but no corresponding panic in options — suggests the short buildup is more a directional trade than broad-based defensive hedging.
The analyst community is holding firm even as the stock retreats. All 11 covering analysts rate QXO a buy, with a consensus price target near $32.75 — a 78% premium to where the stock trades today. Citigroup trimmed its target to $30 last week while keeping its Buy rating; Oppenheimer and Keybanc both lifted targets to $32 in late April. Bulls anchor their case on QXO's pending acquisition of TopBuild as a transformational, accretive deal that positions the company as the tech-enabled leader in building products distribution. Bears counter that housing market headwinds are dragging organic estimates in the first half, and that the heavy investment cycle tied to M&A absorbs capital that might otherwise support near-term profitability. The P/E multiple has compressed 11 points over the past month — now at 37.7x — reflecting the tension between long-duration ambition and short-term execution risk.
Earnings history adds one more layer of context. Of the three prior releases with five-day reaction data, QXO fell between 3% and nearly 9% in the week following each print. The one exception in the data — a 3.2% gain on May 5 — lacks a five-day follow-through reading. Thursday's report is therefore less about whether the TopBuild thesis is intact and more about whether first-half fundamentals can give the Street any reason to question the short sellers' growing conviction.
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