American Airlines heads into the week with short sellers rebuilding positions at a pace that stands out even against a volatile macro backdrop — and options traders are reinforcing the cautious tone.
Short interest is the headline story here, and the move has been steep. SI % of FF climbed to roughly 12.5% by May 12, up from around 9% at the start of the month — a 24% rise in a single week and 31% over the past month. The acceleration is hard to miss in the daily data. After hitting a trough below 9% in late April, following the post-Q1 earnings relief rally, shorts have piled back in steadily across every session this week. The official FINRA fortnightly data, settled April 30, already captured 80.3 million shares short. The ORTEX daily estimate has since pushed past 81.7 million. This is not a position being built cautiously.
Despite the surge in borrowed shares, the lending market itself is far from stressed. Borrow availability remains loose — the cost to borrow is only 0.52%, up 52% on the week but still near the bottom of the recent range, and well off the 0.56% levels seen in early April. What that tells you is that shorts are getting on easily: there is no friction in building these positions. Days to cover checks in at just 1.5, so even if every short wanted to exit simultaneously, the unwind would be brief. The setup looks more like a deliberate, low-friction short campaign than a squeeze-prone crowded trade.
Options are sending an aligned signal. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.70, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 1.54 — the most defensive reading of the past month. For a stock where the PCR rarely dips below 1.38 even in its most bullish periods, options traders clearly want downside protection right now. That elevated PCR has arrived precisely as short interest was accelerating, which makes the positioning picture more coherent: both derivatives and the lending market are tilting the same way.
The Street's reaction to the Q1 earnings print on April 23 was more nuanced. The stock jumped 5.2% on the day, and analysts responded by nudging targets higher rather than dramatically upgrading conviction. Jefferies lifted its target from $12 to $13 while holding at Hold. BMO Capital moved from $12 to $13.50, also maintaining Market Perform. Susquehanna trimmed from $17 to $16, keeping a Positive rating. The overall consensus remains buy, with 11 buy recommendations. The mean analyst target implied by recent moves clusters in the $13–$16 range against a current price of $12.69, leaving modest upside on the Street's own math. The EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.6x, up 0.5x over the past month as the stock recovered. The PE is running at 18x, down slightly on the week.
One factor worth noting is the cluster of insider selling on May 1 — the CFO, COO, Chief Legal Officer, and Controller all sold in the same session at $11.84. Taken together, the transactions totalled roughly $1.8 million. The sales carried low significance scores individually, and the price at which they sold is now below the current market, so they have not been vindicated by the tape. But a coordinated executive disposal on a single date, across multiple C-suite roles, is the kind of signal that market participants track even when the individual amounts are modest.
The next earnings event is scheduled for June 10. After the April 23 print produced a 5.2% single-day move and faded to just 1.8% over five days, the pattern suggests the stock tends to gap on results and then give back ground as traders digest guidance. With shorts rebuilding aggressively into that catalyst window, and peers like UAL and DAL both slightly softer on the week, the setup heading into June 10 is one where the borrow build and the options skew will each be worth re-checking as the date approaches.
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