Options traders at AZ just sent the loudest bearish signal in at least a year. The put/call ratio hit 2.21 on May 18 — a 52-week high and 4.3 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.83. That's an extreme reading by any measure.
Short sellers are equally aggressive. SI rose 11.3% in a single week to 11.2% of free float. Over the past month, short interest is up 26.9%.
Every share in the lending pool is currently lent out. Availability sits at 75.3% of SI — meaning roughly three shares are available for every four already borrowed. That's a tight market, even after a 247% week-on-week surge in availability from last week's low of 34.4%.
The 52-week trough in availability was 13.4% — recorded earlier this year. The lending market has been persistently stressed for months.
Cost to borrow stands at 2.43% APR. It briefly dipped to 1.07% on May 15, then snapped back. The move was short-lived. Borrow demand reasserted itself fast.
The ORTEX short score is 78.2. That puts AZ in the 1st percentile for short pressure — meaning 99% of stocks carry less short-side conviction. Days-to-cover ranks in the 11th percentile. The signal has been consistent: the score has stayed above 78 every day for the past 10 days.
The stock closed at $6.23 on May 18. It's down 25% over the past month and off 15.7% this week. Each of the last three earnings events resulted in a negative 1-day move: -7.3%, -9.1%, and -4.2%. No next earnings date is currently scheduled.
Analysts remain constructive in spite of the pressure. Northland Capital Markets initiated with Outperform in March, setting a $15 target. Benchmark holds a Buy with a $20 target. The mean analyst price target is $22.50 — more than triple the current price. That gap is notable but the analyst data is over 50 days old.
The convergence of a 52-week-high PCR, maxed-out borrow, and an 11% weekly SI jump is an unusually tight alignment of bearish signals. Availability remains the key variable — if it contracts again toward the sub-20% levels seen earlier in May, the cost to borrow will follow.
Data summary
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