Amer Sports reports Q1 2026 results today against a backdrop where the Street is broadly bullish — but the stock is trading nearly 50% below the average analyst target, a gap that reflects genuine macro unease more than conviction on either side.
The options market is modestly more cautious than usual heading into the print. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.62, running above its 20-day average of 0.44, though the z-score of 0.93 falls well short of a distressed read. That is a mild tilt toward hedging rather than outright fear. Short interest is a non-story here: bears hold just 2% of the float, down roughly 8% over the past week as sellers covered. Borrow is priced at 0.41% and availability is extraordinarily loose at over 4,600% — there is no lending-market pressure whatsoever. The stock is up 2% on the day after losing 9% over the past month, clawing back some ground ahead of the release.
The bull case centres on Arc'teryx. Bulls point to China as the engine — regional growth running at 43-57% over the past six quarters, with Arc'teryx accounting for roughly 70% of that regional revenue. Full-year 2024 revenues hit $5.2 billion, debt was cut from $3.2 billion to $1.7 billion using IPO proceeds, and EPS momentum scores rank in the 68th-71st percentile over 30-90 days. Analysts have been directionally bullish: targets from UBS ($60), Evercore ISI ($51), and JPMorgan ($50) all sit well above the current price of $33.83, each reiterated or raised in the months before today. Bears focus on the Americas, which contributes 36% of revenues and is more exposed to consumer spending softness. Low brand awareness for Arc'teryx outside Asia remains a structural drag, and the ongoing debt-reduction focus limits room for marketing investment. The EV/EBITDA of 13.2x is off its 30-day high and the P/E has compressed roughly 3.7 points over the past month — the market has already repriced some of the premium away.
The ownership picture adds one meaningful wrinkle. Point72 added over 8 million shares as of end-March, building a near-1.7% stake from essentially nothing — the largest active-manager accumulation in the latest round of 13F disclosures. Balyasny and Marshall Wace each added more than 2.5 million shares in the same quarter. That cluster of fresh institutional buying suggests sophisticated money was constructive on the setup even as the share price slid. Insider activity is less pointed: the CFO and a divisional CEO both sold small lots at $36.26 in April, immediately after receiving award grants — routine tax-related activity rather than a directional signal.
The print today tests whether the China growth engine is still firing at a rate that justifies any premium, and whether management can offer enough visibility on the Americas business to close at least some of the gap between $33 and a consensus target north of $49.
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