ArcelorMittal has reversed the bear momentum that defined early May — short interest has fallen sharply from its recent peak, while cost to borrow has crept higher on tighter supply.
The short interest picture looks notably different from the story filed eight days ago. At the start of the week ending May 12, shorts had built aggressively — shares short climbed above 3.2 million and the borrow cost had jumped 62% in a single week to 0.89%. Since then, positions have been cut hard. Short interest now stands at roughly 0.56% of free float, down from a peak closer to 0.78% on May 15. That is still above the near-zero readings from late April and early May, but the directional force has changed. Bears are no longer building into price strength — the unwind is now the story.
Cost to borrow tells a different tale, however. It has risen 36% over the past week to 0.94%, the highest level in the 30-day window. The move is notable because it runs counter to the short interest decline: fewer shares borrowed, but lenders charging more for them. Availability remains extraordinarily loose at 2,511%, well above the 52-week floor of 383%. That level of supply means there is no structural squeeze in the lending market — borrowing is easy to access, just modestly more expensive than it was a month ago when the rate hovered near 0.60%.
The Street remains constructive on the stock. Analysts carry a mean price target of €65.53 against a current price of €51.26 — roughly 28% implied upside. The EV/EBITDA multiple has drifted lower, down from 6.36 a week ago to 6.06, while the P/E has compressed to 10.5 from 11.6 over the past month. That re-rating is gentle compression rather than a collapse, and the stock's earnings yield factor scores in the 84th percentile for EPS surprise, suggesting the company has consistently delivered ahead of estimates. Price-to-book at 0.76 leaves the stock trading at a discount to book value.
An independent director has been consistently buying in the open market. Etienne Schneider purchased shares on May 5, May 6, and May 11 — small in aggregate at around €41,000 combined, and low in trade significance — but the pattern of three purchases in a week, all at market prices, provides a mild directional signal from inside the boardroom. The CEO and founder received share awards in March, while the CFO and two executive vice presidents sold small tranches around the same time in what appears to be routine award-and-sell activity.
The most recent earnings print, on April 30, saw the stock fall 2.8% on the day before recovering sharply — gaining 8.9% over the following five sessions. The prior print in February produced a 7.7% single-day gain followed by a further 10.4% five-day move. The next event is scheduled for July 30. Between now and then, the main variables to watch are whether the short interest rebuild resumes, whether borrow costs continue rising even as positions are lighter, and how peers like SSAB A and APAM — both up roughly 2.7-2.8% on the week against ArcelorMittal's flat performance — sustain or retrace their recent gains in the broader materials complex.
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