BX rebounds but the Street stays cautious on valuation

Short positioning remains a non-story — and that consistency is itself worth noting. Short interest has continued its month-long retreat, now at just 2.0% of the free float, down 3% on the week and down 35% versus a month ago when it was running near 3.1%. Bears have not returned despite the price weakness of recent weeks. Borrow conditions are almost absurdly relaxed: availability is at 2,626% — meaning there are roughly 26 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out — and cost to borrow is a mere 0.57%, even after nearly doubling over the past week. That cost-to-borrow move is notable in percentage terms but remains negligible in absolute terms. There is no squeeze dynamic here and no conviction from the short side.

The more interesting tension is on the Street, where the direction of travel has been a steady trimming of targets. The clearest recent move came from Morgan Stanley, whose analyst cut the price target from $215 to $184 on April 21 while keeping an Overweight — a large reduction that signals recalibrated expectations after Q1 results rather than a change in view on the business. TD Cowen lowered again last week to $133, still maintaining a Buy. JP Morgan trimmed to $136 at Neutral after earnings. The consensus mean target is $143.65, roughly 22% above the current price — which sounds constructive, but the direction of revisions has been downward. The bear case centres on flat fee guidance and margin compression dragging 2026 EPS estimates toward $6.30, with peer multiple contraction adding further pressure. Bulls point to $1 trillion-plus AUM, strong fundraising momentum, and deployment optionality across real estate and private credit. The earnings yield factor ranks in the 56th percentile on utilisation and the 91st on dividend score, suggesting the income component of the total return case remains intact even as growth expectations compress.

The April 23 earnings print is the last data point in the reaction history, and it was not kind: the stock fell 6.2% on the day and another 3.2% over the following five sessions. The January print also produced a negative day-one move of 3.0%, followed by a 13.6% five-day drop. Both prior earnings events ended with the stock lower over the following week. With no next earnings date confirmed yet, the immediate watch is whether the Street's target-cutting cycle has run its course — or whether the gap between the $143 consensus and the $118 price continues to close from the wrong direction.