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California Resources Corporation heads into the final days of May with the Street still lifting targets — even as the stock drifts lower alongside a broad E&P selloff.
The most notable development this week is on the analyst front. Barclays raised its target to $80 from $72 on Tuesday, maintaining Overweight. Mizuho followed the next morning, nudging its target to $87 from $86 while holding Outperform. Both actions build on Citigroup's upgrade to Buy — flagged in the last note — and keep the consensus uniformly constructive. The mean target is now $82, implying around 34% upside to Tuesday's $61.24 close. Every tracked analyst carries a positive rating. The debate on CRC is not about direction — it is entirely about the gap between where the Street thinks the stock should be and where it actually trades.
That gap is widening. CRC is down about 2% on the week and off 5.4% over the past month. The peers are faring worse: MTDR shed more than 11% on the week, DVN fell 9%, and CRGY dropped nearly 8%. Against that backdrop, CRC's relative resilience is modest but real. The valuation picture reflects the pullback — the PE multiple has eased to roughly 11.7x, down almost a full turn over the past week, while EV/EBITDA of 4.6x has also ticked lower. For a name with 90-day forward EPS momentum in the 94th percentile and a dividend score ranked 92nd, those are undemanding levels.
Positioning, meanwhile, tells a quiet story. Short interest has continued its retreat from early-May peaks, now at 3.4% of free float — down about 15% from where it was a month ago. The borrow market confirms there is no real pressure: cost to borrow has fallen sharply to 0.39%, down 17% on the week and 25% over the past month. Availability is at 2,415% of outstanding short interest, with roughly 65 million shares available to borrow. That is the loosest the lending market has been since mid-April. There is no sign of short sellers rebuilding positions, and there is certainly no squeeze dynamic. Options positioning is close to neutral — the put/call ratio of 0.61 is only a third of a standard deviation above its 20-day average, well within normal range.
The institutional register is stable and concentrated. BlackRock holds nearly 14% of shares, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board holds 7.9%, and JB Investors holds 7%. Several mid-tier holders added modestly in the most recent reporting period, including Dimensional and State Street. Insider activity is worth noting for context: the 90-day net figure shows more than 113,500 shares sold on balance, primarily through March disposals by the COO, an Executive VP, and a Director — all at prices of $62-$66, close to current levels. Those were orderly sales rather than signals of distress.
The next earnings event is scheduled for August 3. With the stock still trading at a meaningful discount to the consensus target and the sector under broad macro pressure, the question heading into summer is whether the valuation gap attracts fresh buyers — or whether commodity price uncertainty keeps a lid on re-rating until the Q2 print provides a fresh catalyst.
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