Dave Inc. heads into next week's earnings report with analysts rushing to cover the stock at the same moment short sellers are quietly retreating — a rare alignment that has the stock trading at $249.35, up 9% on Tuesday alone.
The analyst activity this week is unusually concentrated. B. Riley lifted its target to $370, maintaining Buy. UBS initiated with a Buy and a $300 target. Evercore ISI started coverage at In-Line with a $260 target — just barely above the current price. The direction of travel from the bullish camp is clear: multiple shops have raised targets into the $340–$370 range since the early-May earnings print. The consensus mean target is $330, implying the stock is now trading at a meaningful discount to the Street's bull case, but Evercore's skeptical initiation is a reminder that not everyone is convinced the re-rating is complete.
Short interest tells a story of genuine conviction unwinding. At 16.7% of the float, the short base is still large — but it peaked above 20% on May 14 and has fallen steadily for two straight weeks, dropping 14% in the most recent week alone. The pullback from ~19.5% to ~16.7% in the span of ten days points to active covering rather than a slow bleed. Borrow costs remain low at 0.57% — there's no squeeze pressure driving the exit. Availability is ample at 525%, meaning new shorts can enter with ease. The covering is discretionary. The ORTEX short score of 55 is also drifting lower from a recent high near 59, reinforcing the directional easing.
The Street's bull case rests on genuine growth numbers. Revenue rose 47% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 57%. Dave's EPS surprise percentile ranks at 85 — the company has consistently beaten. The PE has compressed from above 16 to under 14 over the past month, making the valuation more palatable even after this year's run. The analyst recommendation differential ranks at the 94th percentile of the universe, which reflects the degree of bullish skew relative to how the stock actually trades. Bears counter that aggressive monetisation through higher fees and new credit products like Dave Flex could eventually hurt member retention, and the company's reliance on a new funding arrangement introduces a question about capital allocation discipline. The bear case lacks a near-term catalyst — which may explain why short sellers are reluctant to hold through the June 2 print.
Peer moves add context. ATLC gained 12.7% on the week and UPST rose 9.6% — both outpacing Dave's 4.3% weekly gain. The broader consumer finance complex is in risk-on mode, which gives Dave's covering shorts less reason to hold on to positions. SOFI and SYF moved more modestly, up 1.7% and 1.2% respectively, so the strength is concentrated in the higher-beta, faster-growth names where Dave belongs.
The last earnings print on May 5 produced a sharp reaction: the stock fell 11.7% the next day and was down 13.2% five days later. That is the most relevant recent data point heading into June 2. The question is whether three weeks of short covering and a cluster of analyst initiations have already priced in a recovery from that selloff — or whether the setup into the next print looks cleaner than it did in early May.
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