KYIV enters the final days of May with momentum that has surprised even bullish observers — the stock is up 8% on the week and 24% over the past month, closing at $14.51, its best run since listing. The rally isn't built on short-covering alone. This week Kyivstar Group announced two headline deals: an $80.8 million acquisition of six solar power plants in the Lviv region and the launch of autonomous vehicle pilot testing through its ride-hailing subsidiary Uklon. A Ukrainian telecom operator buying solar farms and testing self-driving cars is a story about transformation, not just recovery.
The catalyst for the initial leg higher stretches back to early May. Q1 earnings released on May 13 beat on both lines — EPS of $0.37 versus a $0.35 estimate, revenue of $323 million against a $313 million consensus. Management followed through with a guidance raise, lifting FY2026 sales expectations to $1.284–$1.319 billion from $1.250–$1.284 billion. Those beats provided the fundamental anchor. The ceasefire announcement on May 8, Trump-era Ukraine-Russia diplomacy, and Kyivstar's formal authorisation to resell Starlink services to Ukrainian businesses provided the sentiment overlay. The stock has essentially repriced on three fronts simultaneously: better numbers, easing geopolitical risk, and a business mix that now includes renewables and technology infrastructure.
The borrow market is relaxed, and that matters for reading the durability of this move. Availability is running near 500% — meaning five shares are available to borrow for every one currently lent out. That's well clear of any squeeze dynamic. Cost to borrow has also eased meaningfully from the mid-April peak above 8%, and is currently around 5.7%, down roughly 18% from a month ago. Short interest, in absolute share terms, fell sharply through mid-to-late April — from around 1.6 million shares short to roughly 1.2 million — before stabilising and nudging higher this week by about 5%. The overall picture is of a short base that cleared on the way up and has not rebuilt in force. The ORTEX short score at 45.2 is well off its recent high of 54.6 from May 14, consistent with shorts having stepped back from a crowded-against-rally posture. Options positioning is equally relaxed — the put/call ratio of 0.085 is fractionally above its 20-day average, suggesting no meaningful defensive hedging despite the sharp move higher.
The ownership structure is a live part of the story. VEON Ltd., the majority parent, controls 83.6% of shares — a stake that has remained unchanged — making the free float genuinely thin. Among the remaining holders, Pertento Partners disclosed a fresh position of 3.3 million shares as of March 31, UBS Asset Management added 2.5 million, and VR Advisory Services and Philosophy Capital each initiated new positions in the quarter. Alyeska Investment Group and Marshall Wace also built new stakes. This cluster of institutional money coming in simultaneously against a compressed float explains why relatively modest buying pressure has had an outsized price effect. Cohen & Company Financial Management, by contrast, cut its position by 3.2 million shares — the largest trimming activity in the holder table.
Barclays initiated coverage on April 8 with an Overweight rating and a $12.50 price target. The stock has already traded through that level. Given the price target was set before the earnings beat, the guidance raise, and the energy-sector pivot, the formal Street position looks stale relative to where the business and the stock now sit. The next earnings event is not until late August — the Q2 release is set for around August 26 — leaving the near-term narrative driven by news flow rather than scheduled catalysts. EV/EBITDA is running around 4.7x, a multiple that remains compressed relative to developed-market telecom peers, though the appropriate frame for a Ukraine-listed operating company is geopolitical risk premium rather than sector comp.
What to watch: whether the solar and autonomous-vehicle deals generate operating-level follow-through in Q2 numbers, how the borrow availability evolves if new institutional buyers continue to reduce the effective float, and whether Barclays or any other coverage-initiating firm revisits its price target following the post-earnings re-rate.
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