AAPL arrives at the end of May in an unusual configuration: the stock is trending higher, shorts are pulling back sharply, yet the cost to borrow has jumped to its highest level in months — a divergence that deserves attention before the next earnings cycle opens in late July.
The most striking data point this week is in the lending market. Cost to borrow has climbed to 3.86%, up 44% over the past week and 66% over the past month. That's the highest reading in the 30-day history tracked here, well above the mid-April trough of around 2.1%. The borrow market is tightening at the same time short interest is falling — a combination that typically reflects fewer shares being returned and recycled into the pool, rather than fresh demand for downside exposure. Availability remains ample at near 10,000% of estimated short interest, so there is no squeeze pressure whatsoever; this is a cost move, not a supply crunch.
Short positioning itself tells a notably quiet story. Short interest as a percentage of the float has barely moved — it edged up to just over 1% of free float on the latest reading, from a low of 0.83% in mid-May. In absolute share terms the picture is more dramatic: estimated short shares fell nearly 80% over the past week and more than 93% over the past month. That collapse is partly a function of how the FINRA-reported figure and the daily estimate can diverge, but the direction is clear — there is very little conviction-short positioning in Apple right now. The ORTEX short score of 27.4 sits in the lower third of the universe, consistent with a stock that shorts largely leave alone.
The stock itself has recovered well. Apple gained 3% on the week and 14.5% over the past month, retracing the weakness that had it slipping back below $300 in mid-May after its post-earnings surge. That April 30 earnings print was notably clean: the stock gained 3.3% the next day and 6% over the following week. The next event is July 30, which leaves roughly two months for the debate between bulls and bears to play out in the open. Bulls are focused on 16% services revenue growth, the AI integration roadmap, and continued capital returns — Apple carries a near-perfect Piotroski F-score and an ROA of over 25%. Bears point to the stretched multiple: EV/EBITDA of 23.4x and EV/EBIT near 25x leave little room for disappointment, and the value pillar of ORTEX's composite score ranks at just 37 out of 100. The overall ORTEX stock score has slipped modestly from a peak of 77.2 to 75.7, with quality still the standout strength but the valuation drag weighing on the composite.
There are no AAPL-specific analyst changes in today's feed, and the most recent Street moves of note were the cluster of target raises in mid-May — Evercore to $365, Tigress to $375, Wedbush to $400 — all on maintained ratings. The consensus remains a buy with a mean target around $308. With the stock now recovering back toward those levels, the implied upside the Street cited two weeks ago has compressed. Barclays remains the outlier holdout with an Underweight and a $253 target.
Institutional ownership data through March 31 shows Vanguard as the largest external holder with 0.17% of shares, followed by a spread of asset managers including Deka, Fidelity International, and Mackenzie — with Daiwa and 1832 Asset Management each adding over one million shares in the quarter. The holder base is diversified and stable, with no single name showing a dramatic position change.
What to watch into summer: whether the cost-to-borrow climb continues even as short interest stays compressed — and whether the July 30 earnings setup attracts the same light short positioning that defined the April print, or whether renewed caution around tariffs and App Store regulation starts to rebuild bearish conviction ahead of the release.
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