Galaxy Digital has now cleared its May 28 earnings hurdle, and the most interesting dynamic heading into June is whether the short-covering trend that dominated May accelerates or stalls.
The stock gave back 1.8% on the day of the report, a modest reaction by any measure. Short interest has been on a steady retreat — down nearly 9% over the past month to 11.9% of the free float, from closer to 13.5% in late April. That month-long unwind has been consistent rather than panicked, suggesting gradual conviction rather than a squeeze. The one-day move barely dented the trend. With the next earnings date pencilled in for July 28, the question now is whether remaining shorts press or continue to fold.
Borrow conditions remain loose, which cuts against any squeeze narrative. Availability runs at 121%, meaning lenders are holding roughly 1.2 shares for every share already borrowed — well off the 44% trough recorded earlier this year. Cost to borrow has nudged up about 11% over the past week to 0.52% annualised, but that is barely a rounding error. Options positioning is mildly cautious: the put/call ratio has drifted higher to 0.64, fractionally above its 20-day average of 0.62 and just under one standard deviation above the mean. No strong directional signal there — the market is not loading up on either side through the options book.
The analyst community is uniformly bullish, but with notable spread on targets. The mean sits at $41.56, roughly 40% above the current price of $29.58, though the range is wide — Cantor Fitzgerald holds a $30 target while Citizens sits at $55. The most recent action came from BTIG on May 21, reiterating Buy with a $50 target. No firm has moved against the stock. The bull case rests on Galaxy's dual exposure to digital assets and data-center infrastructure, with the Helios campus acting as the long-duration growth option. Bears point to execution risk on power-infrastructure timelines, HPC contract uncertainty, and the stock's continued sensitivity to the crypto cycle. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed sharply — down more than 31 points over the past 30 days to 43.9x — reflecting the re-rating as the price has climbed. Price-to-book is 4.1x, broadly unchanged on the week.
The institutional holder table is worth noting. Vanguard Capital Management and Vanguard Portfolio Management both appear with full position-size as new changes in the March 31 data — combined that's over 15 million shares, or roughly 7.9% of the company. D.E. Shaw added nearly 5 million shares in the same period, and Goldman Sachs added 1.5 million. The accumulation is broad-based rather than concentrated, which historically provides a more stable ownership base. That said, the Chairman's shadow hangs over sentiment: Michael Daffey's $14.4 million sell across May 21-22 — documented in the pre-earnings note — remains the starkest insider data point. No comparable buying has emerged to offset it. Net insider activity over 90 days is positive at roughly 633,000 shares, but that reflects older purchases; recent weeks have been all selling.
The ORTEX short score has held steady near 67 through the week, a level elevated relative to large-cap peers and consistent with a name that still carries meaningful positioned risk. What to watch now is whether short interest breaks below 11% of the float — which would represent the next leg of the cover trade — or consolidates at current levels as attention shifts toward the July print and the pace of Helios infrastructure milestones.
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