GLXY enters the back half of June having just printed one of its sharpest weekly moves in recent memory — a 33% gain in five sessions to $33.36 — while short sellers and insiders are both quietly pressing in the opposite direction.
The short side is the most interesting tension right now. Short interest climbed 7.4% over the week to roughly 12.6% of free float, adding around 1.1 million shares to an already elevated base. That is not a trivial number — shorts have been rebuilding steadily since early June after pulling back through most of May. At the same time, the borrow market remains surprisingly relaxed. Availability has actually loosened dramatically, rising to 161% from around 113% a week ago, meaning new shorts can still find shares without difficulty. Cost to borrow, at 0.73%, is low by any standard despite that 150% one-month increase. The ORTEX short score has eased from a recent high of 67.4 to 65.4 — elevated, but not at extremes. Options traders are not pressing the bear case either: the put/call ratio of 0.58 runs below its 20-day average of 0.62, a z-score of roughly -0.8, pointing to call-side positioning that aligns with the momentum rather than hedging against it.
The Street is largely bullish but scattered on price. Analysts maintain Buy-equivalent ratings across the board — BTIG at $50, Canaccord at $50, Citizens at $55 — though Cantor Fitzgerald sits more cautiously at $30, essentially in line with where GLXY traded a week ago. The mean target of $41.69 implies roughly 25% upside from current levels, a reasonable cushion if the rally cools. The bull case rests on Galaxy's institutional crypto infrastructure and data center build-out for AI and high-performance computing. The bear case is more operational: power infrastructure delays, heavy tenant concentration (one counterparty representing nearly half the approved power portfolio), and earnings volatility tied directly to crypto market conditions. The ORTEX factor scores add nuance — the EV/EBIT rank is near the top of the universe at the 100th percentile, but EPS surprise sits at the 30th and EPS momentum over 30 days is near the bottom at the 2nd percentile. Forward EPS growth estimates are positive on a 12-month basis, but recent momentum on that figure has stalled.
Insider activity is worth flagging. The net 90-day flow shows $15.3 million in net selling — a meaningful figure. Chairman Michael Daffey sold roughly $14.4 million worth of shares across four transactions on May 21-22 at prices between $28.66 and $29.27. CEO Mike Novogratz and President/CIO Christopher Ferraro each sold smaller positions on June 1. The Chief Accounting Officer added a $600,000 sale on June 9, the most recent trade in the data. None of these are catastrophic in isolation — some may reflect planned disposals — but the pattern is consistent selling into strength, and the pace has accelerated as the stock has moved higher.
Closest peer COIN gained 4.8% on the week, a solid move but less than half of GLXY's. BULL came closest, up 16.8%. Traditional asset managers in the peer basket — OWL, TROW — were flat to slightly negative, highlighting that this week's move was a crypto-specific event rather than a sector rotation story.
Earnings are scheduled for July 28, and the two most recent prints produced a -1.3% one-day move and a +1.5% one-day move respectively — not dramatically volatile on the day, though the five-day window after the April print stretched to +21%. With the stock now up more than 30% in a week, how short interest behaves around that date — and whether the borrow market begins to tighten as the event approaches — is the key variable to monitor.
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