Ares Management Corporation enters its June 8 earnings call with short sellers adding positions at the fastest pace in months, even as the stock has recovered sharply from its spring lows.
The clearest short-side pressure is in the velocity of new positioning. Short interest has climbed to 7.6% of the free float — up nearly 16% over the past month and 5% in the last week alone. That is a meaningful and sustained build, not noise. The ORTEX short score has ticked up to 53.9, its highest reading in the trailing ten days, continuing a grind higher from around 51 in late May. Cost to borrow has also risen — now at 0.64%, up 20% on the week and 32% over the past month. On an absolute basis, the borrow rate remains low. That tells you shorts are not facing a punishing carry; they can hold positions cheaply. Availability is wide at roughly 393% — well above the threshold where a borrow squeeze becomes a near-term risk — so there is no mechanical pressure forcing shorts to cover.
Options, however, tell a contrasting story. The put/call ratio has dropped to 1.13, running more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.17. That is the most call-skewed reading in recent weeks, suggesting options traders are leaning toward upside exposure into the print rather than buying downside protection. The divergence is the most interesting feature of current positioning: short sellers are quietly building in the stock-loan market while options flow tilts constructive. Both camps have a view on June 8 — they just disagree on the direction.
The Street remains broadly positive, though targets have drifted lower. The analyst consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from TD Cowen, Oppenheimer, and Barclays all maintaining positive ratings after the Q1 results in early May. Barclays actually raised its target to $140 from $127 after that print. JP Morgan cut its target to $144 from $188 in late April — a notable reduction — but held its Overweight rating. The mean target now sits at $145, implying roughly 13% upside from current levels at $128.28. The bull case rests on AUM growth, diversified fee streams, and institutional appetite for alternative credit. The bear case flags a 24.6x forward earnings multiple as stretched, particularly with EPS momentum fading on both 30- and 90-day windows — the eps_momentum factor scores rank in the 21st percentile on the 90-day horizon. Forward EPS growth, however, is a genuine strength: the 12-month forward year-on-year increase ranks in the 90th percentile, suggesting the earnings trajectory is pointed firmly higher even if near-term revisions have wobbled.
The earnings track record backs a constructive reaction. The last two prints — including the Q1 announcement on May 1 and the results session on May 4 — both produced positive one-day moves of 2.2% and 3.3% respectively, with five-day follow-through of 7.5% and 4.7%. That is a consistent pattern of post-print relief rallies, though each of those sessions came from a lower starting point than the current $128.28.
Peer context reinforces how much ARES has recovered relative to the group. KKR slipped 0.6% on the week, Blackstone fell 2.7%, and Carlyle dropped 2.5%. ARES gained nearly 2.4% over the same period — one of the stronger outcomes in the alternative asset manager peer set, which makes the ongoing short build all the more notable as a contrarian bet against relative outperformance.
With the June 8 call now days away, the data to watch is whether short interest continues to accumulate into the event or begins to unwind — and whether the options market's call-skewed tilt gets reinforced or reversed as the print approaches.
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