Zoom Communications heads into its June 11 earnings report having surrendered most of the gains that prompted last week's analyst upgrade wave — down 13% on the week and 4% on Tuesday alone, pulling back to $96.83 from the $111.88 level noted in the prior ORTEX article.
The reversal changes the setup materially. A week ago the stock was trading above most analyst targets; it now sits roughly 18% below the Street consensus of $113.92, with bulls at HSBC ($133) and RBC ($130) implying more than 30% upside from current levels. Options positioning is notably calm given the move — the put/call ratio of 0.57 is almost exactly in line with its 20-day average, and the z-score of 0.27 shows no unusual demand for downside protection. That is a quiet signal in the face of a sharp price decline. Borrow conditions tell the same relaxed story: availability is exceptionally loose at nearly 6,000% of short interest, and short interest itself has drifted lower on the week to 2.6% of float, a level that carries no meaningful squeeze or crowding risk.
The bull case rests on enterprise AI adoption. The recent note flagging stronger-than-expected Q1 guidance, driven by expansion of AI-powered collaboration features among large accounts, is the core argument for buyers who have stepped in below $100. Bears point to the churn risk from white-label customers and question whether AICompanion 3.0 uptake is enough to offset it — a concern that has weighed on sentiment even as the company's core financial profile looks solid, with an EV/EBITDA near 9.8x and a P/E of 16.4x that are not stretched by software standards. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo holding Equal-Weight at $105 — a target now above the stock price — signals that the neutral camp sees fair value but no catalyst for re-rating. The ORTEX short score of 31.4 is benign, consistent with the wider picture of a stock that bears have not aggressively targeted.
The earnings report is therefore a test of whether the enterprise AI narrative is gaining real commercial traction, or whether white-label churn is running faster than the new growth vectors can replace it — a question the price action this week suggests the market has not yet resolved.
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