ZM heads into its August 17 earnings with a rare divergence: options traders are the most bullish they've been all year, while shorts have been quietly adding positions over the past month.
The options signal is the most striking data point this week. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.54, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.56 — the most call-skewed reading of the past 52 weeks, against a low of 0.44 and a high of 0.80. That's an unusually clean bullish lean from the options market, with traders piling into calls rather than hedging with puts. The contrast matters: while the stock slipped 1.5% on the week to $89.77, demand for upside exposure has been climbing, not fading.
Short positioning tells a more cautious story, though the borrow market itself is wide open. Short interest climbed 3% on the week to 2.8% of the free float — still a low absolute level, but the 33% jump over the past month is worth noting. That month-long rebuild has taken shorts from roughly 5.5 million shares to 7.5 million. Yet the lending market shows no stress at all: availability is exceptionally loose at nearly 4,900%, meaning there are roughly 49 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. Borrow costs at 0.40% are negligible. This is not a market where short sellers are under any squeeze pressure — the rebuild is deliberate and low-friction.
The Street remains caught between conviction and caution. The consensus is a hold, with 12 hold ratings against just 3 outperform calls, yet recent analyst moves have all been upward. Several firms raised targets following May earnings — RBC and Needham both reiterate $130 targets — placing the average target price well above the current $89.77. The bull case centres on Zoom's AI-driven platform expansion and the recent Common Room acquisition strengthening its go-to-market intelligence. Bears flag Microsoft Teams' growing PSTN threat and price competition in the CCaaS market from AI virtual agents. The analyst recommendation divergence factor scores in the 94th percentile — a rare gap between where analysts say the stock should trade and where it actually does.
Insider activity adds a note of routine rather than alarm. CEO Eric Yuan sold roughly $4.2 million in shares across July 13–14 in what appear to be scheduled transactions, while CFO Michelle Chang sold approximately $770,000 on July 10. The net 90-day insider position is a modest net sale of about $13.6 million in value — not an unusual cadence for a founder-led company with a large equity stake. Yuan still holds 7.1% of shares outstanding, and BlackRock added 453,000 shares through June 30, with JP Morgan adding 3.5 million shares in the same period.
Earnings history here is mixed in a specific way: the two most recent prints produced next-day moves of flat (–0.3%) and –5.4%, but five-day outcomes diverged sharply — the May 2026 result saw the stock fall 5% on the day then recover 6% over the following week. With the next print on August 17, the question is whether the current call-heavy positioning reflects genuine conviction on the AI monetisation story, or simply a structural skew that will unwind as the date approaches.
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