CAR Group is heading into its August earnings with a notable and growing short position — yet the lending market tells a more relaxed story, creating an unusual split in bearish conviction.
Short interest has climbed steadily and materially over the past six weeks. At 11.8% of the free float, the position is large by any measure. More striking is the pace: shorts have grown roughly 19% since early May, adding around 7 million shares in that window. Over the past week alone, the position rose another 2.2%, and the 30-day build of 15% makes this one of the more sustained bear-positioning moves visible in the data. The ORTEX short score reflects this: holding in the mid-70s for the past two weeks, it puts CAR in the top few percentiles of bearish positioning intensity across the coverage universe.
The lending market, though, is not under pressure. Availability is running at roughly 243% of current short interest — meaning lenders still hold more than two shares available for every share already borrowed. That's comfortably within normal territory, and well above the year's tightest reading near 214%. Cost to borrow has actually eased over the month, dropping to under 1% from around 1.2%. Shorts are building their position, but they're doing so cheaply and without triggering any squeeze dynamics. The borrow market is loose enough that new entrants face no meaningful friction.
The Street angle adds texture. Analyst data is dated — the most recent consensus is from late April — so it should be treated as directional rather than current. The mean price target of AUD 33.93 implies meaningful upside from the current AUD 26.37 price level, though that gap has likely narrowed in the weeks since coverage was refreshed. Valuation multiples have compressed modestly over the past month: the forward P/E is down roughly 0.7 turns to around 23x, and EV/EBITDA has drifted lower by about 0.4 turns. Neither is dramatic, but both point to a market that has been gradually de-rating the stock even as it holds above the AUD 26 mark. The dividend score sits at the 99th percentile — a clean signal that income-oriented holders are well anchored — while earnings surprise ranks in just the 29th percentile, suggesting the market has not been consistently surprised to the upside.
Institutional ownership offers a clue on who is providing the counterweight. Australian Super's most recently reported position has grown enormously — the fund now holds over 34.6 million shares, or more than 9% of the company, with a reported net addition of 33.4 million shares in recent filings. State Street boosted its stake by nearly 7.9 million shares to 38.9 million shares, making it the largest reported holder at just over 10%. JPMorgan's custody position also saw a large net addition, up over 9.4 million shares to 15.3 million. These are significant accumulation events from major institutions, and they sit directly opposite the building short position — some of that freshly borrowed stock is almost certainly coming from within these lending pools.
The recent price history is instructive. CAR gained 3.5% on the day of its May earnings release, then gave most of that back over the following five days. The February release was more dramatic: the stock jumped nearly 10% on the day and held a meaningful portion of that gain across the following week. With the next event set for August 11, the question is whether the short-build of the past six weeks reflects a fundamental view ahead of that result, or simply a beta trade against a broadly weaker peer group — REA Group fell nearly 9.5% over the past week, while SEEK managed a 5.3% gain, leaving the ASX classifieds space sharply divided.
The August 11 print is the next real test: whether the continued short-build into that date accelerates further or begins to unwind will say as much about positioning dynamics as about the underlying business.
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