Avista Corporation enters mid-June in an unusual spot for a regulated utility: the stock is almost exactly where analysts think it should be, shorts are retreating, and the borrow market is wide open.
The most striking development this week is the pace of short covering. Short interest has fallen 13.5% in a single week to 3.2% of the free float — roughly 2.6 million shares — unwinding a position that had built toward 3.4% through mid-May. That drop follows a steady grind lower from a local peak around May 19, when shares short topped 3.4 million. At 3.2% of float, the position is not large in absolute terms, but the speed of the exit is worth noting. Borrowing costs have collapsed in parallel, falling nearly 40% on the week to just 0.27% — a level that makes shorting Avista essentially costless. Availability is completely unconstrained, with far more shares available to lend than are currently borrowed. There is no squeeze dynamic here, and no sign of urgency on either side of the trade.
Options positioning reinforces the lack of tension. The put/call ratio of 0.39 runs below its 20-day average of 0.44, suggesting options traders are leaning slightly more bullish than normal — a mild tilt, not a strong signal. What is notable is the contrast with conditions two months ago: through most of April and into early May, the PCR was running near 0.90, reflecting meaningful hedging demand. That defensive posture has largely unwound, and the current ratio is near the low end of its 52-week range of 0.30–1.02.
The Street has converged on a narrow range of views that mirrors the stock's current price almost exactly. The consensus target is $42.17, barely a rounding error from the $42.43 close. Barclays raised its target to $42 on June 4, maintaining Equal-Weight, after trimming it in early May. Mizuho similarly nudged its Neutral target to $42 in early May. Neither firm is making an aggressive call — both are essentially saying the stock is fairly priced for a regulated utility generating a PE of roughly 15.6x and an EV/EBITDA near 9.5x. The earnings yield factor score ranks in the 71st percentile on EPS surprise, suggesting the company has a habit of modest beats, but the forward EPS momentum scores (49 on the 30-day measure, 32 on 90-day) point to a flat estimate revision trend. The dividend score of 98 — near the top of the universe — is the clearest fundamental standout, though the dividend history data in this snapshot predates 2023 and should not be used to confirm the current yield level.
Peer context adds a bit of colour. BKH gained about 1% on the week and CMS added 2.1%, while AEE slipped 0.2%. Avista's 2.4% monthly gain keeps it roughly in step with the utility group, neither leading nor lagging in a meaningful way.
The next scheduled event is earnings on August 5. Historical reactions have been muted — the last print on May 14 produced a one-day move of under 1%, and the prior quarters were similarly quiet. With shorts covering, options defensive hedging unwound, and the Street clustered at fair value, what to watch between now and August is whether the earnings estimate revision trend (currently flat to slightly lower) gives either bulls or bears a reason to break from the current equilibrium.
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