CAR Group enters the week with shorts continuing to accumulate — yet the gap between that growing conviction and the relaxed lending market remains the defining tension in this name.
The short position keeps expanding at a measured but persistent pace. At 11.8% of the free float, shorts have now added roughly 19% since early May — approximately 7.1 million shares over that six-week window. This week's 2.2% addition is the latest increment in what has become one of the more sustained bear-positioning trends visible in the data. The ORTEX short score has held in the mid-70s throughout, settling at 74.8 on June 11 — a reading that ranks CAR in roughly the 4th percentile on the short score rank, meaning shorts are more intensely positioned here than in nearly all comparable names. Days-to-cover is another signal worth noting: official data puts it at 22.6 days, a figure that reflects just how long it would take to unwind this position at normal trading volumes.
The lending market, however, continues to push back against any squeeze narrative. Availability — the ratio of shares still available to borrow versus those already out on loan — has actually loosened this week, climbing to 243% from around 222% a week ago. That means lenders hold more than two shares available for every one currently borrowed. Borrow costs have also drifted lower, easing to 0.92% from above 1% over the past month — cheap enough that holding a short position carries no meaningful carry burden. The year's tightest availability reading was 214%, hit in late May; the current level is well clear of that. Shorts are building, but nothing in the lending market is forcing their hand.
The Street provides some context for why bears are circling. The most recent analyst consensus — flagged as stale at roughly 47 days old — had a mean price target near A$33.93, implying meaningful upside from the current A$26.37 close. That gap suggests bulls still see a substantially undervalued stock, while the accumulating short interest implies a competing view that the valuation doesn't justify the current multiple. The PE sits at 23.2x and has drifted lower over the past 30 days, while the EV/EBITDA of 15x has also compressed slightly — a gentle derating rather than a sharp re-rating. Factor scores are mixed: the dividend score ranks in the 99th percentile, but the EPS surprise rank is low at the 29th, suggesting the company has not been consistently beating estimates. The short score rank of 4 puts bears firmly in the driving seat on positioning.
Among close peers, the week's price moves tell a divergent story. REA — CAR's highest-correlated ASX comparable — fell 9.5% on the week, a notably sharp pullback that may be sharpening bearish attention on the broader digital classifieds space in Australia. SEK bucked that trend, rising 5.3% over the same period. CAR itself has moved sideways, down just 0.34% on the week after a 1.3% gain over the past month, suggesting it has so far absorbed whatever pressure hit REA without a corresponding selloff.
Ownership flows add one further thread. Australian Super made a striking addition in its most recent disclosure — increasing its holding by over 33 million shares to reach 9.1% of the company, making it the second-largest known institutional holder. State Street also added nearly 7.9 million shares. The concentration of recent buying by large domestic and global institutions at current levels sits in direct contrast to the short build, keeping the ownership picture genuinely two-sided ahead of the August 11 earnings date.
The next catalyst is that August print — and with shorts near a six-week high, availability comfortable, and a peer like REA posting a 9.5% weekly loss, the question is whether CAR's relative resilience holds or whether it starts to converge with broader sector weakness before results arrive.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open CAR on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
