SPCE is now dealing with the hangover from one of the sharpest two-act trades of the year — a 40%-plus one-month rally built on SpaceX anticipation, followed by a 32% single-day collapse the moment the real deal began trading.
The positioning data tells a stark story about what's left behind. Short interest has climbed to 40.9% of free float — up 26% over the past month — and availability has hit zero. Every share in the lending pool is currently lent out, matching the tightest borrow conditions the stock has seen all year. Cost to borrow has risen to 14.3%, up roughly 58% from its late-May level near 9%, reflecting the sustained demand for borrows as shorts rebuilt through the rally. That combination — record-high short interest, zero availability, and elevated borrow costs — means new shorts are paying a real carry premium to hold their positions. The short score has been running above 73 for the past two weeks, placing SPCE in the 2nd percentile of the market on both short score rank and utilization rank: almost no stock is more heavily shorted or more squeezed in the lending market. Options traders have also turned more cautious, with the put/call ratio at 0.57 — well above its 20-day average of 0.42 and running near a one-standard-deviation premium, suggesting hedging activity has picked up in the wake of Thursday's collapse.
The Street remains broadly skeptical, though the most recent analyst data predates the SpaceX catalyst entirely. The freshest moves — Susquehanna lifting its target to $3.00 in April while staying Neutral, and Jefferies trimming to $5.00 while keeping a Buy — bookend a range that bracketed the stock before the spike. Morgan Stanley's Underweight at $2.30 (from December 2025) now looks the most prescient call in the room. The mean price target of $3.55 is roughly in line with the current $3.91 print, which suggests the Street sees limited upside from here even after the drawdown. Valuation multiples offer little comfort: SPCE carries a negative PE of -3.5x and negative EV/EBITDA of -4.8x, reflecting a business that is still burning cash with no near-term path to profitability. The price-to-book of 1.75x has been compressing rapidly — up nearly a full turn over the past month, then partly reversing — illustrating how much of SPCE's market value is tied to sentiment rather than balance sheet.
The earnings history reinforces how badly these catalysts tend to land. The most recent print on June 11 produced a 17% single-day decline. The prior May 14 report delivered a 2.4% drop on the day and a 4.5% loss over the following five days. The next scheduled event is August 4. With short interest this elevated and availability already exhausted, the stock enters that window with very little structural cushion on either side — shorts are fully committed, and any new entrants face meaningful borrow costs to establish a position.
The setup for the coming weeks centers on whether the SpaceX spillover — which drove peers ACHR and MNTS down 4% and 27% respectively on the day — continues to weigh on the broader speculative aerospace cohort, or whether short sellers at 40.9% of float and zero availability begin to feel the pressure of a crowded and expensive trade.
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