Groupon CEO Sells Big as Stock Rebounds — Shorts Still Dug In

GRPN has rebounded 7.8% on the week to $17.45, its best week in over a month — yet the headline from this period isn't the price recovery, it's a $22 million CEO sale straight into that rally.

On June 11, CEO Dusan Senkypl sold 1,347,185 shares at $16.54, raising just under $22.3 million. That's a disposal of 7.5% of the company's outstanding shares from a single insider in a single session. The 90-day net insider position tells a similarly one-sided story: net sales of roughly $23.7 million across the period, with the CEO's awards on May 1 accounting for the only meaningful inflow. The CFO also sold in early May, and the COO trimmed $853k worth around the same time. The picture across the executive suite is consistent — insiders have been using the stock's relative strength to reduce exposure. Pale Fire Capital, the Czech investment firm that remains the largest institutional holder at 26.8% of shares, has held its position flat through this period, providing a degree of structural stability to the register.

Short positioning remains the defining backdrop — and it has barely changed. SI eased another 2.8% on the week to 30.7% of the free float, continuing the slow grind lower flagged in prior notes. A month ago, SI ran near 34%. Four weeks of covering have shaved off roughly three percentage points. The pace of retreat remains glacial. What is more notable is the borrow market itself: availability has tightened back to just 1.9%, with the lending pool essentially fully deployed for the sixth consecutive week. The 52-week low on availability was 0.51%, hit on June 5. This week's reading is only marginally above that floor. Cost to borrow, at 1.69%, has shown almost no volatility across the past month — no squeeze premium is building, but there is also no slack in the pool for meaningful new short supply. Anyone wanting to add to a short position right now faces a near-exhausted lending market.

Options traders are positioned more bullishly than usual. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.36, its lowest level of the past year — against a 52-week high of 1.20 — and running slightly below its 20-day average of 0.38. That's a near-record tilt toward calls relative to recent history, and it sits in contrast to the executive selling. The ORTEX short score holds at 76.2, creeping higher for the third consecutive week and indicating that the overall short thesis remains structurally intact even as the stock bounces.

The Street is divided with conviction on both sides. Goldman Sachs reiterated its Sell rating on May 12 while lifting its target to $13 — still well below the current $17.45 price. Bulls at Northland and Roth have targets in the $44–$47 range, dating from mid-2025, though those levels look increasingly disconnected from where the stock actually trades. The mean consensus target is $26.33. The bull case centres on operating leverage and improving cash conversion; the bear case points to declining billings guidance (down 2.5–5%), revenue contraction, and debt refinancing risk. At a PE near 10x and EV/EBITDA of 8.6x, the valuation is not obviously expensive — but the fundamental trajectory is not supportive of multiple expansion. The next earnings event is scheduled for August 6.

The setup heading into that print is an unusual one: a stock that has bounced 8% on the week, with its CEO having just sold 7.5% of the company into that move, a short base that won't leave, a borrow market running near empty, and options traders tilting toward calls. What changes this picture — whether the August 6 print can shift the fundamental narrative, or whether insider selling signals the rally has run its course — is the central question worth watching.