Bloom Energy has clawed back 8.2% this week to $280.88, reversing nearly half the 14% selloff flagged in the previous note — yet the short position that built through May remains almost entirely intact, making this rally the story's central tension.
Short interest held at 12.5% of the free float through the week, with fewer than 30,000 shares net change between Monday and Tuesday. That is not a short squeeze — it is shorts sitting on their hands while longs stepped in. The 30-day build from roughly 21.5 million shares in early May to nearly 29.6 million now remains one of the sharpest accumulations in Bloom's recent history, and nothing this week dislodged it. Availability is loose enough that there is no mechanical pressure: nearly 2,980 shares sit available to borrow for every 100 already out on loan — an extraordinary cushion that means any short wanting to add exposure can do so immediately, at almost no cost. The borrow rate eased 14.5% on the week to 0.43%, near the low end of the past 30-day range. The ORTEX short score at 47.4 has barely moved in ten sessions, reinforcing the picture of a short base in patient equilibrium rather than active accumulation or retreat.
Options positioning nudged slightly more defensive on the rally. The put/call ratio ticked up to 1.20, modestly above its 20-day average of 1.17 — a z-score of just 0.6, so nothing alarming, but notable in context: buyers did not chase the move cleanly. The 52-week high on the PCR is 1.31, reached in late May; the current reading is directionally consistent with caution persisting even as the price recovered. Peer added 12.9% on the week, slightly outpacing Bloom's rebound, while was essentially flat at +1.8%, suggesting the clean-energy bid this week was selective rather than sector-wide.
The Street remains rangy on valuation but newly attentive. Bernstein initiated coverage Wednesday with a Market Perform and a $276 target — essentially a hold at current prices and a signal that a heavyweight research firm sees the stock as fairly valued after the spring rally. That sits in line with the consensus picture: twelve analysts at Hold, a mean target of $263.65, with Citigroup (Neutral, $281) and JP Morgan (Overweight, $267) bracketing the centre. Bulls at RBC ($335 target, Outperform) and BTIG ($295, Buy) see meaningful room above current prices; bears point to an EV/EBITDA of 69.8x and a price/book of 42.9x as hard to justify against execution risk. The factor scores offer something for both sides: EPS momentum ranks in the 92nd–98th percentile over 30- and 90-day windows, forward EPS growth ranks 100th percentile, and analyst recommendation divergence is in the 98th percentile — but the short-score rank sits in just the 20th percentile, consistent with the elevated SI as a persistent drag on the composite.
Insider activity over the past 90 days adds a mild cautionary note. The 90-day net is technically positive at roughly 325,000 shares, but that figure includes the CEO's 80,000-share award in May at zero cost. Stripping out the non-cash awards, the pattern is one-directional: director John Chambers sold $16.4 million in late May, the CLO has sold in four separate transactions totalling over $22 million since mid-April, and the CCO and COO both trimmed in mid-May. No insider has bought shares for cash in the window.
Earnings land on July 30. The last three prints produced moves of +7.1%, -8.6%, and +22.7% on day one — a wide and unpredictable range. The April print also added 25.8% over the subsequent five days. Whether the 12.5% short base chooses to cover ahead of that date, or holds through it, is the next key variable to track.
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