General Mills heads into its June 24 earnings report with one of the more bearish analyst setups in the packaged-foods space — and a short interest position that, despite easing slightly, remains meaningful.
The short interest picture is still worth watching. Nearly 8.8% of the free float is held short, a level that has climbed roughly 12% over the past month even after pulling back about 4% in the final session of the week. At around 47 million shares short, bears have built a real position — but the lending market has not tightened alongside it. Borrow availability runs at roughly 253%, meaning more than two shares are available to borrow for every one already lent out, and the cost to borrow is just 0.52%. New shorts face no friction entering the trade. Options positioning, by contrast, has actually softened: the put/call ratio of 0.78 sits slightly below its 20-day average of 0.81, suggesting no unusual rush for downside protection immediately ahead of the release.
The analyst community has been consistently negative in the run-up, a pattern that is hard to ignore. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both cut price targets in early June — to $32 and $31 respectively — while maintaining Underweight ratings already below the current share price of $33.42. UBS holds a Sell with a $30 target, and BofA trimmed to $36 from $42 in late May. The consensus mean of $37 looks mechanical at this point, dragged up by the lone Overweight from Piper Sandler ($41 target). Bulls point to brands like Cheerios, Nature Valley, and Blue Buffalo as durable pricing engines, with the EV/EBITDA multiple around 10.5x offering some value argument. Bears counter that retail volumes are soft, promotional spending is compressing margins, and the pet food de-stocking story is far from resolved. All 10 recent analyst actions in the past two months have been target cuts — not a single raise.
The earnings history adds pressure. When GIS last reported in March, the stock fell 3.2% on the day and then extended losses to 6.6% over the following five sessions. Peers have been under pressure too, with CAG down 1.9% on the week, CPB off 7.0%, and KHC falling 5.8% — so this is a sector-wide sell-off, not isolation around GIS specifically, though GIS has held up slightly better than some names.
The June 24 print will test whether the company can show any volume recovery or margin stabilisation that gives a skeptical Street a reason to reconsider — because right now, positioning looks bearish without being extreme, and the analyst tape offers bulls almost nowhere to hide.
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