Critical Metals Corp. arrives at its June 25 earnings release with bears still deeply entrenched — but the borrow market has shifted meaningfully since the last preview, and that shift deserves attention.
The most notable change from earlier this week is in availability. After spending most of June with the lending pool essentially at zero — availability was below 0.5% on seven of the past ten sessions — it has climbed back to 15.2%. That is still tight by any normal standard: roughly one share available for every six already lent out. But it represents a genuine reopening compared to June 18, when availability sat at 0.1%. Cost to borrow has eased slightly to 33.7%, down from the 34.4% peak earlier in June but still running 16% above the level from a month ago. The structural picture has loosened at the edges without changing the core dynamic: this remains one of the harder names to borrow in the junior critical metals space.
Short interest itself is little changed. Bears hold 17.8% of the free float — down roughly 12% from the late-May peak above 22 million shares but essentially flat on the week. The ORTEX short score of 80.2 places CRML in the most bearish 20% of the tracked universe and has barely moved over the past ten sessions, signaling that the conviction behind the short position has not wavered. Options positioning reinforces the cautious read: the put/call ratio jumped to 0.59 on Monday, nearly three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.52 — the most defensive options lean the stock has shown in months, even if the absolute PCR is modest.
The bull-bear divide on CRML is straightforward. Bulls point to the analyst consensus target of $17.00 against a current price of $10.45 — roughly 63% implied upside — and the stock's momentum, which has recovered from a difficult month. Bears focus on fundamental weakness: the Piotroski F-score of 2, deeply negative ROA, and a Piotroski Z-score flagging financial stress. The company's largest shareholder, European Lithium Limited, trimmed 7.5 million shares earlier this year, reducing its stake to 31%. The only analyst coverage on record — Freedom Broker's March initiation at a $15 target — is too dated and from a non-bellwether firm to carry much weight on its own.
Past earnings reactions for CRML have been sharp in both directions. The January 2026 print produced a one-day gain of 35% and a five-day follow-through of 116%; the two most recent prints both delivered immediate declines of 2-8%, with five-day losses of 14-17%. Thursday's print will test whether the partial loosening in the borrow market reflects shorts quietly covering or simply a temporary pool rebalancing — and whether the stock's recovery to $10.45 has enough fundamental support to survive what has consistently been a volatile post-earnings window.
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