CRML Borrow Market Locks Up as Bears Pile In

Availability for CRML has collapsed to just 3.8%. Only one share remains available to borrow for every 26 already lent out. That is the defining fact about this stock right now.

The Lending Market Is Effectively Closed

Availability has dropped 75% in one week. The borrow pool is nearly exhausted. At sub-4% availability, establishing new short positions is extremely difficult — and expensive.

Cost to borrow stands at 21%. That sounds like relief after recent peaks. It hit 95% on July 7. The decline reflects the stock's 39% one-month slide, which reduces the economic value of holding short. But at 21%, the annual carry cost on a short position remains punishing.

The 52-week low for availability is 0.001%. The lending market has been at or near maximum stress repeatedly. This is a stock where the borrow pool vanishes and reappears in short cycles.

Short Interest Is High and Growing

SI stands at 19.9% of free float. That is substantial. It has risen 10.5% over the past month. Around 20.9 million shares are short.

The ORTEX short score sits at 78.4. Two weeks ago it was above 83. The score is falling — not because sentiment is improving, but because the stock's sharp decline may be easing some of the pressure metrics. Still, a score near 78 places CRML in extreme short-seller territory.

Factor rankings reinforce the picture. Short score rank is in the 1st percentile. Days-to-cover rank is in the 20th percentile.

Options Market Signals Bearish Shift

The put-call ratio jumped to 0.61 on July 20. The 20-day mean is 0.58. The move is 2.9 standard deviations above that mean. Options traders are adding downside protection at an elevated rate.

The PCR 52-week range runs from 0.11 to 0.81. At 0.61, the current reading is in the upper half — elevated but not at extremes.

Analyst Conviction Remains — At a Distance

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated with a Speculative Buy and an $18 target on July 14. The stock closed at $6.21 on July 20. That implies the analyst sees nearly 190% upside from here. Freedom Broker and Clear Street also carry Buy ratings from earlier initiations.

Sell-side coverage is bullish. The borrow market and the options market tell a different story. Both are pointing the same direction.

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• Availability: 3.8% (down 75% in one week)
• Cost to borrow: 21.0% (down from 95% on July 7)
• SI % of free float: 19.9% (up 10.5% in one month)
• ORTEX short score: 78.4
• Put-call ratio: 0.61 (z-score: +2.9)
• Price change, 1 month: –39%
• Next earnings: October 6, 2026