BTDR enters the back half of June with a striking split between fresh analyst conviction and a short book that refuses to budge — Citizens just slapped a $35 target on a $17 stock, yet bears hold their largest position of the past month.
The positioning picture is genuinely unusual for a crypto-infrastructure name. Short interest has barely moved despite a month that saw the stock rally 18% — bears remain dug in at 27.5% of the free float, one of the heavier readings in the sector. The short position is essentially frozen: it has changed less than 1% in either direction over the past week, suggesting neither a covering wave nor fresh additions. Borrow availability is comfortable at around 175%, meaning there is ample room for new shorts to enter if sentiment deteriorates. Cost to borrow is cheap at under 1%, reinforcing that the current short book faces no meaningful squeeze pressure from the lending market. Options traders are pointing the other way — the put/call ratio is running near its 52-week low at 0.18, well below the 20-day average of 0.29, a clear tilt toward call demand rather than downside hedging.
The analyst story moved sharply this week, and the distance between the bull and bear camps could not be wider. Citizens initiated coverage on Tuesday with a Market Outperform and a $35 target — more than double the current price and comfortably the most aggressive call on the Street. That sits well above the consensus mean of $22.64. The broader analyst direction has been constructive since the May earnings print: B. Riley, Rosenblatt, and Needham all raised targets at that point, with Rosenblatt moving to $25. The lone dissenter in recent memory is Cantor Fitzgerald, which downgraded to Neutral in April and has held there, maintaining a $15 target — the only price target below the current stock level. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 83rd percentile, and the 90-day EPS momentum score is near the top of the universe at 99. The bull case rests on hash rate expansion, new high-efficiency rigs, and nascent AI/HPC revenue diversification. Bears point to crypto price dependence, the AI segment's lack of meaningful partnerships, and a valuation that requires execution on several parallel expansion tracks simultaneously. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed about 7% over the past 30 days, now running at roughly 15x on forward estimates.
The ownership table adds an interesting layer. Jane Street built an almost entirely new position of 10.2 million shares, reported as of early June — a notable institutional arrival. Tether Holdings remains the largest non-founder institutional holder at 15.5% but trimmed slightly. Sachem Head Capital Management initiated a position of 9.6 million shares in Q1 and has not reported since, making it the largest disclosed activist-style holder outside the founding group. Founder Jihan Wu controls 19.5% and has not changed his position.
The ORTEX short score of 71.4 reflects the weight of that 27.5% float short — not because the borrow market is tight, but because the absolute short interest level is high and the stock has drifted lower on the week despite the bullish initiation. After the May earnings release, the stock gained nearly 1% on the day and then extended to a 13% five-day move, suggesting the market rewarded the Q1 beat. The next print is scheduled for August 12, giving the Street roughly seven weeks to resolve the gap between a $35 bull target, a $15 bear holdout, and a short book that has so far treated the post-earnings rally as a selling opportunity rather than a signal to cover.
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